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Recent great depressions: Aggregate growth in New Zealand and Switzerland, 1973-2000

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  • Timothy Kehoe
  • Kim Ruhl

Abstract

Throughout the 1950s and 60s real GDP per working-age person in New Zealand and Switzerland grew at rates at or above the 2 percent trend growth rate of the United States. Between 1973 and 2000, however, real GDP per working-age person in both countries has fallen a cumulative 30 percent below the trend growth path. Our growth accounting attributes almost all of the changes in output growth to changes in the growth of total factor productivity (TFP), and not to changes in labor or capital accumulation. A calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model that takes TFP as exogenous can explain almost the entire decline in relative output in both New Zealand and Switzerland. To understand the recent growth experiences in New Zealand and Switzerland, it is necessary to understand why TFP growth rates have fallen so much.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Kehoe & Kim Ruhl, 2003. "Recent great depressions: Aggregate growth in New Zealand and Switzerland, 1973-2000," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 5-40.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:37:y:2003:i:1:p:5-40
    DOI: 10.1080/00779950309544377
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ulrich Kohli, 2003. "Terms of trade, real GDP, and real value added: A new look at New Zealand's growth performance," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 41-66.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2009. "Business cycles in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: an RBC approach," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 148-170.
    2. Chakraborty, Suparna, 2008. "Indian Economic Growth: Lessons for the Emerging Economies," WIDER Working Paper Series 067, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Franck Portier, 2008. "Interprétation d'épisodes historiques à l'aide de modèles dynamiques stochastiques d'équilibre général," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 33-46.
    4. Çiçek, Deniz & Elgin, Ceyhun, 2011. "Not-quite-great depressions of Turkey: A quantitative analysis of economic growth over 1968–2004," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2691-2700.
    5. Tim Hazledine & John Quiggin, 2005. "No More Free Beer Tomorrow? Economic policy and outcomes in Australia and New Zealand 1984-2003," Australian Public Policy Program Working Papers WP4P05, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
    6. Michael Siegenthaler, 2015. "Has Switzerland Really Been Marked by Low Productivity Growth? Hours Worked and Labor Productivity in Switzerland in a Long-run Perspective," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 353-372, June.

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