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Recent great depressions: Aggregate growth in New Zealand and Switzerland, 1973-2000

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  • Timothy Kehoe
  • Kim Ruhl

Abstract

Throughout the 1950s and 60s real GDP per working-age person in New Zealand and Switzerland grew at rates at or above the 2 percent trend growth rate of the United States. Between 1973 and 2000, however, real GDP per working-age person in both countries has fallen a cumulative 30 percent below the trend growth path. Our growth accounting attributes almost all of the changes in output growth to changes in the growth of total factor productivity (TFP), and not to changes in labor or capital accumulation. A calibrated dynamic general equilibrium model that takes TFP as exogenous can explain almost the entire decline in relative output in both New Zealand and Switzerland. To understand the recent growth experiences in New Zealand and Switzerland, it is necessary to understand why TFP growth rates have fallen so much.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy Kehoe & Kim Ruhl, 2003. "Recent great depressions: Aggregate growth in New Zealand and Switzerland, 1973-2000," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 5-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:nzecpp:v:37:y:2003:i:1:p:5-40
    DOI: 10.1080/00779950309544377
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ulrich Kohli, 2003. "Terms of trade, real GDP, and real value added: A new look at New Zealand's growth performance," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 41-66.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2009. "Business cycles in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: an RBC approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 148-170.
    2. Franck Portier, 2008. "Interprétation d'épisodes historiques à l'aide de modèles dynamiques stochastiques d'équilibre général," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 33-46.
    3. Yannic Stucki & Jacqueline Thomet, 2021. "A neoclassical perspective on Switzerland’s 1990s stagnation," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-26, December.
    4. Tim Hazledine & John Quiggin, 2005. "No More Free Beer Tomorrow? Economic policy and outcomes in Australia and New Zealand 1984-2003," Australian Public Policy Program Working Papers WP4P05, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, University of Queensland.
    5. Amartya Lahiri & Kei-Mu Yi, 2009. "A Tale of Two States: Maharashtra and West Bengal," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(3), pages 523-542, July.
    6. Betts, Caroline, 2021. "How many (more) lost decades? The great productivity slowdown in Japan," MPRA Paper 106503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Çiçek, Deniz & Elgin, Ceyhun, 2011. "Not-quite-great depressions of Turkey: A quantitative analysis of economic growth over 1968–2004," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2691-2700.
    8. Jalil, Muaz, 2009. "Measuring Switzerland's Productivity Performance (1960-2008)," MPRA Paper 65321, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Michael Siegenthaler, 2015. "Has Switzerland Really Been Marked by Low Productivity Growth? Hours Worked and Labor Productivity in Switzerland in a Long-run Perspective," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(2), pages 353-372, June.
    10. Mr. Ales Bulir & Alma Romero-Barrutieta & Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado, 2011. "The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2011/157, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2005. "Is Switzerland in a Great Depression?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(3), pages 759-775, July.
    12. Suparna Chakraborty, 2008. "Indian Economic Growth: Lessons for the Emerging Economies," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-67, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Debasis Bandyopadhyay, 2004. "Why haven't economic reforms increased productivity growth in New Zealand?," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 219-240.

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