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Economic Fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe. The Facts

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  • ATTILA RÃ TFAI
  • PÉTER BENCZÚR

Abstract

We carry out a detailed analysis of quarterly frequency dynamics in major macroeconomic aggregates in twelve countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The facts we document include the variability and persistence in and the co-movement among output and other major real and nominal variables. Patterns in cyclicality and persistence are in general in line with evidence from other countries. Output is more volatile in transition economies than in industrial countries. Its components are also more volatile, and their cyclical patterns and persistence are similar to that of industrial countries. The same applies to employment, real wages and productivity, emphasizing the role of real shocks. Employment is coincidental or leading. Private sector credit shows a strong cyclicality, with an ambiguous sign. Monetary aggregates are mostly procyclical, while velocities are countercyclical. The price level tends to be countercyclical, and highly volatile. The cyclicality of inflation is unclear, and its relative volatility is low. Real exchange rates tend to be countercyclical

Suggested Citation

  • Attila Rã Tfai & Pã‰Ter Benczãšr, 2004. "Economic Fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe. The Facts," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 41, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:41
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Synchronicity of real and financial cycles and structural characteristics in EU countries," CEIS Research Paper 414, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Sep 2017.
    3. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2009. "Business cycles in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: an RBC approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 148-170.
    4. Maria Neycheva, 2005. "The Impact of the Fisc on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Bulgarian Economy," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 42-59.
    5. Gächter, Simon & Riedl, Alesandra & Ritzberger-Grünwald, Doris, 2013. "Business cycle convergence or decoupling? Economic adjustment in CESEE during the crisis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Katarzyna Rosiak-Lada, 2008. "Stylized Facts of Macroeconomics: the Polish Experience," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 20.
    7. Shaig Adigozalov & Vugar Rahimov, 2015. "Institutional Quality, Cyclicality of Macroeconomic Policies and the Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Evidence from Transition Economies," IHEID Working Papers 23-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6141 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Miguel Santos, 2016. "The Right Fit for the Wrong Reasons: Real Business Cycle in an Oil-dependent Economy," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 53(1), pages 61-94, December.
    10. Alina Barnett, 2007. "The effects of EU shocks on the newly acceded countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 389-404.
    11. Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2013. "Similar GDP-inflation cycles. An application to CEE countries and the euro area," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 124-144.
    12. Tanja Broz, 2008. "The Introduction of the Euro in Central and Eastern European Countries - Is it Economically Justifiable?," Working Papers 0801, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    13. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "New synchronicity indices between real and financial cycles: Is there any link to structural characteristics and recessions in European Union countries?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 617-641, October.
    14. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Stylized facts of business cycles in a transition economy in time and frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2163-2173.
    15. Sandrine Levasseur, 2008. "Updating empirical evidence on business cycles synchronization between CEECs and euro area : how important is the recent period," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-00973040, HAL.
    16. Ciprian Chirilă & Viorica Chirilă, 2012. "Unemployment And Business Cycles In Central And Eastern European Countries," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 486-493, November.
    17. Slavov, Slavi T., 2008. "Measuring and modeling the effects of G-3 exchange rate fluctuations on small open economies: A natural experiment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 253-273, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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