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Economic Fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe. The Facts

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  • ATTILA RÃ TFAI
  • PÉTER BENCZÚR

Abstract

We carry out a detailed analysis of quarterly frequency dynamics in major macroeconomic aggregates in twelve countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The facts we document include the variability and persistence in and the co-movement among output and other major real and nominal variables. Patterns in cyclicality and persistence are in general in line with evidence from other countries. Output is more volatile in transition economies than in industrial countries. Its components are also more volatile, and their cyclical patterns and persistence are similar to that of industrial countries. The same applies to employment, real wages and productivity, emphasizing the role of real shocks. Employment is coincidental or leading. Private sector credit shows a strong cyclicality, with an ambiguous sign. Monetary aggregates are mostly procyclical, while velocities are countercyclical. The price level tends to be countercyclical, and highly volatile. The cyclicality of inflation is unclear, and its relative volatility is low. Real exchange rates tend to be countercyclical

Suggested Citation

  • Attila Rã Tfai & Pã‰Ter Benczãšr, 2004. "Economic Fluctuations in Central and Eastern Europe. The Facts," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 41, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:41
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    File URL: http://repec.org/esLATM04/up.8878.1080401272.pdf
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    Keywords

    business cycle facts;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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