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Crecimiento potencial y productividad en la Argentina: 1980-1997

Listed author(s):
  • Osvaldo Meloni

    (Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Argentina)

El presente trabajo estima el producto potencial para la Argentina en el período 1980-97. El enfoque utilizado es el aplicado por Roldós (1997) para el caso de Chile, que obtiene las participaciones de los factores de producción mediante la estimación de una función de producción agregada con insumos ajustados por calidad y supone pleno uso de factores productivos. La serie de producto potencial obtenida presenta dos subperíodos bien diferenciados: en el lapso 1980-89 la tasa de cambio promedio anual fue nula, mientras que para el subperíodo 1990-97 fue del 5,4%. Sin embargo, en este último subperíodo el nivel del potencial fue superior al registrado, lo que indicaría que no hubo episodios de “recalentamiento” durante esos años. El trabajo se completa con la estimación de las fuentes de crecimiento económico de Argentina. Se encuentra que, mientras en el lapso 1980-89 la productividad total de factores decreció a una tasa del 0,4% si se computan los insumos ajustado por calidad y del 1,8% si no se practica tal ajuste; en el subperíodo 1990-97 la productividad total de factores creció al 2% anual si los insumos se ajustan por calidad y al 4% sin ajuste. Estos guarismos nos revelan que el crecimiento que experimentó nuestro país durante la década del 90, fue del tipo intensivo, en contraposición al crecimiento extensivo detectado por otros autores en la ex –Unión Soviética y algunos países del sudeste asiático.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0503001.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2005
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0503001
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 23
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  1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  2. Charles Adams & David T. Coe, 1990. "A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 232-293, June.
  3. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1995. "The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 453-475, December.
  4. Michael Sarel, 1997. "Growth and Productivity in Asean Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/97, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
  6. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 1995. "The Soviet Economic Decline," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 9(3), pages 341-371, September.
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