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Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896-2000)

  • Campos, Nauro F
  • Karanasos, Menelaos
  • Tan, Bin

This paper investigates the effects of financial development and political instability on economic growth in a power-ARCH framework with data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. Our findings suggest that (i) informal or unanticipated political instability (e.g., guerrilla warfare) has a direct negative impact on growth; (ii) formal or anticipated instability (e.g., cabinet changes) has an indirect (through volatility) impact on growth; (iii) the effect of financial development is positive and, surprisingly, not via volatility; (iv) the informal instability effects are much larger in the short- than in the long-run; and (v) the impact of financial development on economic growth is negative in the short- but positive in the long-run.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7004.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7004
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  1. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, 1.
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  6. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G., 2008. "Growth, volatility and political instability: Non-linear time-series evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 135-137, July.
  7. Campos, Nauro F. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Who is afraid of political instability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 157-172, February.
  8. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Jinki Kim, 2006. "Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(3), pages 319-343, 06.
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  10. Karanasos, Menelaos & Schurer, Stefanie, 2007. "Is the Relationship Between Inflation and its Uncertainty Linear?," Ruhr Economic Papers 18, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  11. Leandro Prados de la Escosura & Isabel Sanz Villarroya, 2006. "Contract Enforcement and Argentina’s Long-Run Decline," Working Papers in Economic History wp06-06, Universidad Carlos III, Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales.
  12. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2009. "From Riches to Rags, and Back? Explaining the Growth Trajectory of Argentina since the 1890s," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Frankfurt a.M. 2009 37, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  13. Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2006. "A re-examination of the asymmetric power ARCH model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, January.
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  21. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
  22. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio Schmukler, 2003. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Financial Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 9787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Price, Simon, 2001. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 383-99, September.
  24. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "What can we learn from the current crisis in Argentina?," Staff Report 318, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  25. Nauro Campos & Menelaos Karanasos, 2007. "Growth, Volatility & Political Instability: Non Linear Time Series Evidence for Argentina 1896-2000," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp891, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  26. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2006. "Growth volatility and financial liberalization," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 370-403, April.
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