IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/6524.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000

Author

Listed:
  • Karanasos, Menelaos
  • Campos, Nauro

Abstract

What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual time series data for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. We show that while assassinations and strikes (what we call ?informal? political instability) have a direct negative effect on economic growth, ?formal? political instability (constitutional and legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the idea that while the effects of ?formal? instability are stronger in the long-run, those of ?informal? instability are stronger in the short-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Karanasos, Menelaos & Campos, Nauro, 2007. "Growth, Volatility and Political Instability: Non-Linear Time-Series Evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000," CEPR Discussion Papers 6524, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6524
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP6524
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.),Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677, Elsevier.
    2. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
    3. Dimitrios Asteriou & Simon Price, 2001. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 383-399, September.
    4. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422.
    5. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Price, Simon, 2001. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 383-399, September.
    6. Campos, Nauro F. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Who is afraid of political instability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 157-172, February.
    7. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    8. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    9. James C. Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2004. "Civil Wars and Economic Growth: Spatial Dispersion," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(1), pages 138-151, January.
    10. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
    11. Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2006. "A re-examination of the asymmetric power ARCH model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, January.
    12. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    13. James Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 451-464.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen Haibo & Emmanuel Kwaku Manu & Mary Somuah, 2023. "Examining Finance-Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence From the Sub-Regional Economies of Africa," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, February.
    2. Campos, Nauro & Karanasos, Menelaos & Tan, Bin, 2008. "Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896-2000)," CEPR Discussion Papers 7004, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    4. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. Muhammad Zahid Naeem, 2020. "Political Instability, Trade Openness And Economic Growth In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 9(4), pages 183-190, December.
    6. Simplice A, Asongu, 2011. "Political crises and risk of financial contagion in developing countries: Evidence from Africa," MPRA Paper 37459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH modeling of stock market volatility: A multi-country study," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 147-159, January.
    8. Jacek Rothert, 2015. "Monitoring, moral hazard, and turnover," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(2), pages 355-374, February.
    9. Fateh Habibi & Mohammad Sharif Karimi, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Iran and GCC," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(3), pages 601-620, Summer.
    10. IRSHAD Hira, 2017. "Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns And Stock Market Volatility," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(2), pages 70-99, August.
    11. repec:awi:wpaper:0472 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nauro F. Campos & Menelaos G. Karanasos & Bin Tan, 2016. "From Riches to Rags, and Back? Institutional Change, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Argentina since 1890," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 206-223, February.
    13. Zeeshan, Muhammad & han, Jiabin & Rehman, Alam & Ullah, Irfan & Hussain, Arif & Alam Afridi, Fakhr E., 2022. "Exploring symmetric and asymmetric nexus between corruption, political instability, natural resources and economic growth in the context of Pakistan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2020. "The impact of political instability on economic growth: the case of Guyana," MPRA Paper 103145, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Doré, Natalia I. & Teixeira, Aurora A.C., 2023. "The role of human capital, structural change, and institutional quality on Brazil's economic growth over the last two hundred years (1822–2019)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    17. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2012. "Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-304.
    18. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni & Fabrizio Valenti, 2016. "Volatility and Growth with Recursive Preferences," CEIS Research Paper 387, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jun 2016.
    19. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2018. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 598-615.
    20. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies: a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    21. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Papadamou, Stephanos & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2015. "On quantitative easing and high frequency exchange rate dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 110-125.
    22. repec:jle:journl:199 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. RAMDE, Fousseni, 2015. "Institution, investissements et croissance dans l’UEMOA: une approche panel VAR [Institution, investments and growth in WAEMU: a panel VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 82417, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2017.
    24. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Campos, Nauro & Karanasos, Menelaos & Tan, Bin, 2008. "Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896-2000)," CEPR Discussion Papers 7004, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Nauro Campos & Menelaos Karanasos, 2007. "Growth, Volatility & Political Instability: Non Linear Time Series Evidence for Argentina 1896-2000," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp891, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2012. "Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-304.
    4. Nauro F. Campos & Menelaos G. Karanasos & Bin Tan, 2016. "From Riches to Rags, and Back? Institutional Change, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Argentina since 1890," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 206-223, February.
    5. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey," MPRA Paper 1943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Woo, Jaejoon, 2011. "Growth, income distribution, and fiscal policy volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 289-313, November.
    7. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    8. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    9. Elena Andreou & Alessandra Pelloni & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Is Volatility Good for Growth? Evidence from the G7," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0804, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni, 2014. "Productivity growth and volatility: how important are wage and price rigidities?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 306-324, January.
    11. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Hassan, Gazi Mainul, 2011. "A panel data analysis of the growth effects of remittances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 701-709, January.
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Alessandra Canepa, & Menelaos G. Karanasos & Alexandros G. Paraskevopoulos,, 2019. "Second Order Time Dependent Inflation Persistence in the United States: a GARCH-in-Mean Model with Time Varying Coefficients," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201911, University of Turin.
    15. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    16. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 81-92.
    17. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    18. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas, 2005. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Macroeconomic Performance: Are They Related?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 58-76, September.
    19. Carmen PINTILESCU & Mircea ASANDULUI & Elena-Daniela VIORICA & Danut-Vasile JEMNA, 2016. "Investigation On The Causal Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainties In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 71-89, June.
    20. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2013. "Asymmetric and Time-Varying Causality between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in G-7 Countries," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 1-42, February.
    21. Elias Papaioannou & Gregorios Siourounis, 2008. "Democratisation and Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1520-1551, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Political instability; Power-arch; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.