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Growth, volatility and political instability: Non-linear time-series evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000

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  • Campos, Nauro F.
  • Karanasos, Menelaos G.

Abstract

We investigate the growth volatility-political instability relationship in a power-ARCH framework (for Argentina, 1896-2000). Main finding is that while "informal" political instability (e.g., assassinations) has a direct negative effect on economic growth, "formal" instability has an indirect impact (through growth volatility).

Suggested Citation

  • Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G., 2008. "Growth, volatility and political instability: Non-linear time-series evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 135-137, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:100:y:2008:i:1:p:135-137
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    2. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
    3. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
    4. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Price, Simon, 2001. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 383-399, September.
    5. Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2006. "A re-examination of the asymmetric power ARCH model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, January.
    6. Campos, Nauro F. & Nugent, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Who is afraid of political instability?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 157-172, February.
    7. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    8. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2009. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671422, April.
    9. James Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 451-464.
    10. Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2011. "Multivariate fractionally integrated APARCH modeling of stock market volatility: A multi-country study," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 147-159, January.
    2. Simplice A, Asongu, 2011. "Political crises and risk of financial contagion in developing countries: Evidence from Africa," MPRA Paper 37459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Campos, Nauro F & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2014. "From Riches to Rags, and Back? Institutional Change, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Argentina since the 1890s," IZA Discussion Papers 8654, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Campos, Nauro F & Karanasos, Menelaos & Tan, Bin, 2008. "Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896-2000)," CEPR Discussion Papers 7004, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. repec:jle:journl:199 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jacek Rothert, 2015. "Monitoring, moral hazard, and turnover," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 58(2), pages 355-374, February.
    7. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2012. "Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-304.
    8. RAMDE, Fousseni, 2015. "Institution, investissements et croissance dans l’UEMOA: une approche panel VAR
      [Institution, investments and growth in WAEMU: a panel VAR approach]
      ," MPRA Paper 82417, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2017.
    9. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni & Fabrizio Valenti, 2016. "Volatility and Growth with Recursive Preferences," CEIS Research Paper 387, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jun 2016.
    10. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
    11. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    12. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Papadamou, Stephanos & Dimitriou, Dimitrios, 2015. "On quantitative easing and high frequency exchange rate dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 110-125.
    13. repec:blg:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:2:p:70-99 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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