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Growth, volatility and political instability: Non-linear time-series evidence for Argentina, 1896-2000

  • Campos, Nauro F.
  • Karanasos, Menelaos G.

We investigate the growth volatility-political instability relationship in a power-ARCH framework (for Argentina, 1896-2000). Main finding is that while "informal" political instability (e.g., assassinations) has a direct negative effect on economic growth, "formal" instability has an indirect impact (through growth volatility).

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-4RC2NHK-2/1/bdf106428637d8bc357d84f00b5eaa63
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 100 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 135-137

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:100:y:2008:i:1:p:135-137
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. James Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 451-464.
  2. Nauro F. Campos & Jeffrey B. Nugent, 2000. "Who is Afraid of Political Instability?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 326, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Durlauf,S.N. & Johnson,P.A. & Temple,J.R.W., 2004. "Growth econometrics," Working papers 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  4. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521855266 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  6. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2002. "Inflation, Output Growth, and Nominal and Real Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence for the G7," Working Papers 0064, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
  7. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Price, Simon, 2001. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 383-99, September.
  8. Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003. "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 187, Royal Economic Society.
  9. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  10. Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2006. "A re-examination of the asymmetric power ARCH model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 113-128, January.
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