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Productivity and Growth in an Unstable Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Turkey, 1960-2004

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  • Mustafa Ismihan
  • Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan

Abstract

This paper explores sources of growth in the Turkish economy by performing growth accounting exercises over the 1960-2004 period and relevant subperiods. It also analyzes the role of a number of important policy-related factors, such as infrastructure investment, macroeconomic instability, and imports, on total factor productivity (TFP) by performing cointegration and impulse response analyses. The results suggest that both TFP and capital accumulation were crucial sources of growth during the sample period. Nevertheless, TFP growth displayed enormous variation from 1960 to 2004. The descriptive and empirical evidence suggests that TFP is positively affected by imports and public infrastructure investment and negatively affected by macroeconomic instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan, 2009. "Productivity and Growth in an Unstable Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Turkey, 1960-2004," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 4-18, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:45:y:2009:i:5:p:4-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erin Yeldan & Kivilcim Metin-…zcan & Ebru Voyvoda, 1999. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy : Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1998," Working Papers 9905, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    2. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan & Aysit Tansel, 2005. "The role of macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: the case of Turkey 1963-1999," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 239-251.
    3. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
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    6. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 847-868.
    7. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 847-868.
    8. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan, 2009. "Productivity and Growth in an Unstable Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Turkey, 1960-2004," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 4-18, September.
    9. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    10. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    11. Erin Yeldan & Kivilcim Metin-…zcan & Ebru Voyvoda, 1999. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy : Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1998," Working Papers 9905, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan, 2009. "Productivity and Growth in an Unstable Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Turkey, 1960-2004," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 45(5), pages 4-18, September.
    2. Üngör, Murat, 2013. "Some Thought Experiments on the Changes in Labor Supply in Turkey," EY International Congress on Economics I (EYC2013), October 24-25, 2013, Ankara, Turkey 219, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association.
    3. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2013. "The Impact of Trade Integration with the European Union on Productivity in a Posttransition Economy: The Case of Polish Manufacturing Sectors," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 84-104.
    4. Attar, M. Aykut, 2013. "Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric," MPRA Paper 47275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Murat Ungor, 2012. "A Production Function Method of Estimating the Output Gap," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1219, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Georges, Patrick & Seçkin, Aylin, 2016. "From pro-natalist rhetoric to population policies in Turkey? An OLG general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 79-93.
    7. Pinar Falcioglu, 2011. "Location and Determinants of Productivity: The Case of the Manufacturing Industry in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 86-96, November.
    8. Üngör, Murat, 2014. "Some thought experiments on the changes in labor supply in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 265-272.
    9. Burcu Aydin & Deniz Igan, 2012. "Bank Lending in Turkey: Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(5), pages 78-104, September.
    10. Burcu Aydin & Deniz Igan, 2012. "Bank Lending in Turkey: Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(5), pages 78-104, September.
    11. Pinar Falcioglu, 2011. "Location and Determinants of Productivity: The Case of the Manufacturing Industry in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 86-96, November.

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