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Productivity and Growth in an Unstable Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Turkey, 1960-2004

  • Mustafa Ismihan
  • Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan

This paper explores sources of growth in the Turkish economy by performing growth accounting exercises over the 1960-2004 period and relevant subperiods. It also analyzes the role of a number of important policy-related factors, such as infrastructure investment, macroeconomic instability, and imports, on total factor productivity (TFP) by performing cointegration and impulse response analyses. The results suggest that both TFP and capital accumulation were crucial sources of growth during the sample period. Nevertheless, TFP growth displayed enormous variation from 1960 to 2004. The descriptive and empirical evidence suggests that TFP is positively affected by imports and public infrastructure investment and negatively affected by macroeconomic instability.

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Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Emerging Markets Finance and Trade.

Volume (Year): 45 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 4-18

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Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:45:y:2009:i:5:p:4-18
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=111024

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  1. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
  2. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
  3. Burnside, Craig & Dollar, David, 1997. "Aid, policies, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1777, The World Bank.
  4. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  5. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan & Aysit Tansel, 2005. "The role of macroeconomic instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: the case of Turkey 1963-1999," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 239-251.
  7. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  8. Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan & Mustafa Ismihan, 2008. "Productivity and Growth in an Unstable Emerging Market Economy : The Case of Turkey, 1960-2004," Working Papers 0801, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
  9. Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan & Ebru Voyvoda & A. Erinc Yeldan, 2000. "Dynamics of Macroeconomic Adjustment in a Globalized Developing Economy: Growth, Accumulation and Distribution, Turkey 1969-1998," Working Papers 2004, Economic Research Forum, revised Feb 2000.
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