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A Production Function Method of Estimating the Output Gap

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  • Murat Ungor

Abstract

[TR] Bu calisma, basit bir uretim fonksiyonunu temel alarak Turkiye icin bir cikti acigi gostergesi hesaplamaktadir. 2005-2008 doneminde cikti aciginda pozitif duzey olusmus ve 2007 : Q4 donemi tepe noktasi olarak gozlenmistir. 2009 yilinda ise son kuresel krizin etkisiyle uretim duzeyi, potansiyel duzeyinin altinda yer almis ve cikti acigi 2009 : Q1 doneminde dip noktasina ulasmistir. Bu calismada ortaya konulan cikti acigi hesaplamalari, yeni Keynesyen bir model ve Bayesci yontem kullanilarak Turkiye’de cikti aciginin hesaplandigi, Alp, Ogunc ve Sarikaya (2012) calismasinin bulgulari ile karsilastirilmistir. Niceliksel olarak bazi farkliliklar gozlenmekle beraber; iki calismada da niteliksel olarak benzer cikti acigi bulgulari ortaya konmaktadir. [EN] This note estimates an output gap measure for Turkey using a production function approach relying on a simplistic representation of the production technology. There is a large positive swing in the output gap during 2005–2008 and output gap reached its peak in 2007 : Q4. Output level fell below its potential dramatically as a result of the global economic crisis in 2009 hitting a trough in 2009 : Q1 and negative output gap as a percentage difference from the potential output was around 12 percent. Output gap estimates in this note and the ones obtained in Alp, Ogunc, and Sarikaya (2012), using Bayesian estimation of a New Keynesian model, exhibit a similar pattern qualitatively, whereas there are some differences in quantitative terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Ungor, 2012. "A Production Function Method of Estimating the Output Gap," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1219, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1219
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tetsuya Konuki, 2008. "Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia," IMF Working Papers 08/275, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mustafa Ismihan & Kivilcim Metin-Ozcan, 2009. "Productivity and Growth in an Unstable Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Turkey, 1960-2004," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 4-18, September.
    3. Fethi Ogunc & Cagri Sarikaya, 2011. "Gorunmez Ama Hissedilmez Degil : Turkiye'de Cikti Acigi," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 11(2), pages 15-28.
    4. Harun Alp & Fethi Ogunc & Cagri Sarikaya, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Output Gap : Mind the Composition," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Ufuk Demiroglu, 2013. "Turkiye’de 2001 ve 2009 Krizlerinde Sabit Sermaye Buyumesindeki Kayiplar ve Bu Kayiplarin Potansiyel GSYH’ye Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1307, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    6. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc & Umit Ozlale & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 269-289, July.
    7. Vivian Chen & Abhay Gupta & Andre Therrien & Gad Levanon & Bart van Ark, 2010. "Recent Productivity Developments in the World Economy: An Overview from The Conference Board Total Economy Database," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 19, pages 3-19, Spring.
    8. F. OğunC & D. Ece, 2004. "Estimating the output gap for Turkey: an unobserved components approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 177-182.
    9. Harun ALP & Yusuf Soner BAŞKAYA & Mustafa KILINÇ & Canan YÜKSEL, 2011. "Estimating Optimal Hodrick-Prescott Filter Smoothing Parameter for Turkey," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 26(306), pages 09-23.
    10. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap; An Application to Sweden," IMF Working Papers 00/59, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giang Huong Nguyen, 2014. "Estimating the Output Gap to Support the Management of Interest Rates in Vietnam," IHEID Working Papers 05-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Ufuk Demiroglu & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "The Capacity Buildup over the Past Decade and the Capacity Utilization Rate in Turkey," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1312, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    3. Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2012. "Alternatif Cikti Acigi Gostergeleri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1222, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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