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Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls

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  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
  • Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex

Abstract

Estimating the effect of trade on capital flows is difficult given the inherent identification problem. We use fluctuations in rainfall to capture the exogenous variation in trade between Germany, France, the U.K., and the Ottoman Empire during 1859-1913. The provisionistic policy of the Ottoman Empire--only surplus production was exported--constitutes the basis of our identification strategy. We find that one standard deviation in rainfalls from the mean leads to a 3.5 percent increase in Ottoman exports, which in turn causes a 10 percent increase in capital inflows from the three source countries. Our findings support trade theories predicting complementarity between trade and capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2011. "Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls," CEPR Discussion Papers 8550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8550
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    Cited by:

    1. Volosovych, Vadym, 2011. "Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1535-1561.
    2. Rajag M. Nag & Johannes F. Linn & Harinder S. Kohli (ed.), 2016. "Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region's Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number centasia2050, August.
    3. Bos Jaap W.B. & Economidou Claire & Zhang Lu, 2011. "Specialization in the Presence of Trade and Financial Integration: Explorations of the Integration-Specialization Nexus," Research Memorandum 026, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    4. Rui P. Esteves, 2011. "The Political Economy of Global Financial Liberalisation in Historical Perspective," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _089, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; default; empire; exports; FDI; rainfalls;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

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