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Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls

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  • Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem
  • Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex

Abstract

We use a historical quasi-experiment to estimate the causal effect of trade on capital flows. We argue that fluctuations in regional rainfall within the Ottoman Empire capture the exogenous variation in exports from the Empire to Germany, France, and the U.K., during 1859-1913. The provisionistic policy of the Ottoman Empire - that is, only a surplus production was allowed to be exported - combined with the fact that different products grow in different regions that are subject to regional variation in rainfall and Germany, France and the U.K. import different products, constitute the basis of our identification. When a given region of the Empire gets more rainfall than others, the resulting surplus production is exported to countries with higher ex-ante export shares for those products and this leads to higher investment by those countries in the Ottoman Empire. Our findings support theories predicting complementarity between trade and capital flows.

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  • Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2011. "Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls," CEPR Discussion Papers 8550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8550
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    Cited by:

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    4. Volosovych, Vadym, 2011. "Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1535-1561.
    5. Rajag M. Nag & Johannes F. Linn & Harinder S. Kohli (ed.), 2016. "Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region's Potential," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number centasia2050, March.
    6. Srinivasa Madhur, 2016. "Pursuing Open Regionalism for Shared Prosperity," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 8(2), pages 216-246, May.
    7. Yuping Deng & Haicheng Wang & Yanrui Wu, 2024. "Public Opinion and Chinese Exports: Evidence from Twitter Sentiment Analysis," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 24-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    8. Bos, J.W.B. & Economidou, C. & Zhang, L., 2011. "Specialization in the presence of trade and financial integration: explorations of the integration-specialization nexus," Research Memorandum 026, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    9. Rui P. Esteves, 2011. "The Political Economy of Global Financial Liberalisation in Historical Perspective," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _089, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Exports; Default; Fdi; Empire; Rainfalls;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

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