Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls
Estimating the effect of trade on capital flows is difficult given the inherent identification problem. We use fluctuations in rainfall to capture the exogenous variation in trade between Germany, France, the U.K., and the Ottoman Empire during 1859-1913. The provisionistic policy of the Ottoman Empire--only surplus production was exported--constitutes the basis of our identification strategy. We find that one standard deviation in rainfalls from the mean leads to a 3.5 percent increase in Ottoman exports, which in turn causes a 10 percent increase in capital inflows from the three source countries. Our findings support trade theories predicting complementarity between trade and capital flows.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
| Length: | |
| Date of creation: | Aug 2011 |
| Handle: | RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8550 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ. Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801 Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|
| Order Information: | Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g708pipbp is not listed on IDEAS
- Alan M. Taylor & Janine L. F. Wilson, 2006.
"International Trade and Finance under the Two Hegemons: Complementaries in the United Kingdom 1870-1913 and the United States 1920-30,"
NBER Working Papers
12543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Taylor, Alan M. & Wilson, Janine, 2006. "International Trade and Finance under the Two Hegemons: Complementarities in the United Kingdom (1870-1913) and the United States (1920-30)," CEPR Discussion Papers 5846, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Altug, Sumru & Filiztekin, Alpay & Pamuk, Şevket, 2008. "Sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey, 1880–2005," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 393-430, December.
- Christopher M. Meissner & Alan M. Taylor, 2006. "Losing our marbles in the new century?: the great rebalancing in historical perspective," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
- Meissner, Christopher M & Taylor, Alan M., 2006. "Losing our Marbles in the New Century? The Great Rebalancing in Historical Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 5917, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christopher M. Meissner & Alan M. Taylor, 2006. "Losing our Marbles in the New Century? The Great Rebalancing in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 12580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonin Aviat & Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2007. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," Post-Print hal-01045223, HAL.
- Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2005. "Supersanctions and Sovereign Debt Repayment," NBER Working Papers 11472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aviat, Antonin & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2007. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 22-51, March.
- Antonin Aviat & Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2004. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," DELTA Working Papers 2004-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Antonin Aviat & Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2007. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
- Aviat, Antonin & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2006. "The Geography of Trade in Goods and Asset Holdings," ESSEC Working Papers DR 06012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
- James Feyrer, 2009. "Trade and Income -- Exploiting Time Series in Geography," NBER Working Papers 14910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 53-58, May.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "Serial default and the “paradox” of rich to poor capital flows," MPRA Paper 13997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 10296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 53-58, May.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2004. "Serial Default and the “Paradox†of Rich-to-Poor Capital Flows," Scholarly Articles 11129182, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Keller, Wolfgang & Shiue, Carol Hua, 2008. "Tariffs, Trains, and Trade: The Role of Institutions versus Technology in the Expansion of Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 6759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sevket Pamuk & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2009. "Ottoman De-Industrialization 1800-1913: Assessing the Shock, Its Impact and the Response," NBER Working Papers 14763, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo, 2006. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Original Sin in Emerging Countries: Déjà vu?," NBER Working Papers 12393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.