IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbwps/20121466.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

History, gravity and international finance

Author

Listed:
  • Mehl, Arnaud
  • Eichengreen, Barry
  • Chiţu, Livia

Abstract

We analyze persistence in patterns of bilateral financial investment using data on US investors’ holdings of foreign bonds. We document a “history effect” in which the pattern of holdings seven decades ago continues to influence holdings today. 10 to 15% of the cross-country variation in US investors’ foreign bond holdings is explained by holdings 70 years ago, plausibly reflecting fixed costs of market entry and exit. This effect is twice as large for bonds denominated in currencies other than the dollar, suggesting the existence of even higher fixed costs of initiating US foreign investment in currencies other than the dollar. Our findings point to history and path dependence as key sources of financial market segmentation. JEL Classification: F30, N20

Suggested Citation

  • Mehl, Arnaud & Eichengreen, Barry & Chiţu, Livia, 2012. "History, gravity and international finance," Working Paper Series 1466, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121466
    Note: 501438
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1466.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g708pipbp is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 2010. "The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 871-897, December.
    3. Pol Antràs & Ricardo J. Caballero, 2009. "Trade and Capital Flows: A Financial Frictions Perspective," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(4), pages 701-744, August.
    4. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 1995. "Trade blocs, currency blocs and the reorientation of world trade in the 1930s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
    5. Portes, Richard & Rey, Helene, 2005. "The determinants of cross-border equity flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 269-296, March.
    6. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez‐De‐Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2006. "What Works in Securities Laws?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 1-32, February.
    7. Martin, Philippe & Rey, Helene, 2004. "Financial super-markets: size matters for asset trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 335-361, December.
    8. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    9. Daude, Christian & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 94-119, January.
    10. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2009. "The Costs of Sovereign Default," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 683-741, November.
    11. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    12. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    13. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "The Drivers of Financial Globalization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 327-332, May.
    14. Barry Eichengreen & Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, 2008. "Bond Markets as Conduits for Capital Flows: How Does Asia Compare?," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy, pages 267-313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    16. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Philippe Martin, 2009. "The Geography of Asset Trade and the Euro: Insiders and Outsiders," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Globalization, 20th Anniversary Conference, NBER-TCER-CEPR, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Okawa, Yohei & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Gravity in International Finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 205-215.
    18. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2011. "Structural Estimation of Gravity Models with Path-Dependent Market Entry," FIW Research Reports series III-007, FIW.
    19. Aviat, Antonin & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2007. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 22-51, March.
    20. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2004. "A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default, and Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 50-63, June.
    21. De Santis, Robert A. & Gérard, Bruno, 2009. "International portfolio reallocation: Diversification benefits and European monetary union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1010-1027, November.
    22. Barry Eichengreen, 1989. "The U.S. Capital Market and Foreign Lending, 1920 - 1955," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 107-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Aggarwal, Raj & Kearney, Colm & Lucey, Brian, 2012. "Gravity and culture in foreign portfolio investment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 525-538.
    24. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène & Truempler, Kai, 2012. "The financial crisis and the geography of wealth transfers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 266-283.
    25. John Ammer & Sara B. Holland & David C. Smith & Francis E. Warnock, 2012. "U.S. International Equity Investment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1139, December.
    26. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1187-1215, June.
    27. Forbes, Kristin J., 2010. "Why do foreigners invest in the United States?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 3-21, January.
    28. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    29. Rui Esteves, 2011. "The Belle Epoque of International Finance. French Capital Exports, 1880-1914," Economics Series Working Papers 534, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    30. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    31. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    33. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "International Investment Patterns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 538-549, August.
    34. Chiţu, Livia & Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud, 2014. "When did the dollar overtake sterling as the leading international currency? Evidence from the bond markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 225-245.
    35. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    36. José de Sousa & Julie Lochard, 2011. "Does the Single Currency Affect Foreign Direct Investment?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 113(3), pages 553-578, September.
    37. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
    38. Eichengreen, Barry & Portes, Richard, 1986. "Debt and default in the 1930s : Causes and consequences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 599-640, June.
    39. Barry Eichengreen & Marc Flandreau, 2012. "The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Rise of the Dollar as an International Currency, 1914–1939," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 57-87, February.
    40. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g7287gghh is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    43. Hatanaka, Michio, 1974. "An efficient two-step estimator for the dynamic adjustment model with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 199-220, September.
    44. Sandro C. Andrade & Vidhi Chhaochharia, 2010. "Information Immobility and Foreign Portfolio Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2429-2463, June.
    45. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
    46. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
    47. Head, Keith & Ries, John, 2008. "FDI as an outcome of the market for corporate control: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 2-20, January.
    48. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g7287gghh is not listed on IDEAS
    49. Barry Eichengreen & Marc Flandreau, 2010. "The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the rise of the dollar as an international currency, 1914-39," BIS Working Papers 328, Bank for International Settlements.
    50. Ahearne, Alan G. & Griever, William L. & Warnock, Francis E., 2004. "Information costs and home bias: an analysis of US holdings of foreign equities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 313-336, March.
    51. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: U.S. External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Pierucci, Eleonora & Pericoli, Filippo & Ventura, Luigi, 2014. "Reassessing international investment patterns: a revisitation of Lane and Milesi-Ferretti's evidence," MPRA Paper 53585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    53. Nikolaus Wolf & Albrecht O. Ritschl, 2011. "Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 291-312, May.
    54. Maarten Bosker & Harry Garretsen, 2007. "Trade Costs, Market Access and Economic Geography: Why the Empirical Specification of Trade Costs Matters," CESifo Working Paper Series 2071, CESifo.
    55. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
    56. William L. Griever & Gary A. Lee & Francis E. Warnock, 2001. "The U.S. system for measuring cross-border investment in securities: a primer with a discussion of recent developments," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 87(Oct), pages 634-650, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. History matters: even in very deep and heavily traded markets
      by Nicholas Gruen in Club Troppo on 2013-01-21 18:42:30

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Milsom, L. & Pažitka, V. & Roland, I. & Wójcik, D., 2020. "Gravity in International Finance: Evidence From Fees on Equity Transactions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2059, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Maurice Kugler & Oren Levintal & Hillel Rapoport, 2018. "Migration and Cross-Border Financial Flows," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 32(1), pages 148-162.
    3. Chiţu, Livia & Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud, 2014. "When did the dollar overtake sterling as the leading international currency? Evidence from the bond markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 225-245.
    4. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Assessing systemic risk and its determinants for advanced and major emerging economies: the case of ΔCoVaR," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 119-152, January.
    5. Brei, Michael & von Peter, Goetz, 2018. "The distance effect in banking and trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 116-137.
    6. Jordi Paniagua, 2015. "A gravity model for foreign re-investment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 627-632.
    7. Maurice Kugler & Oren Levintal & Hillel Rapoport, 2018. "Migration and Cross-Border Financial Flows," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 32(1), pages 148-162.
    8. repec:idb:brikps:81941 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Martin,William J., 2020. "Making Gravity Great Again," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9391, The World Bank.
    10. Peter J. Buckley, 2016. "Historical Research Approaches to the Analysis of Internationalisation," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 879-900, December.
    11. Owsiński, Jan W. & Pielak, Aneta M. & Sęp, Krzysztof, 2013. "Smartness, culture and local authority ICT awareness: an empirical enquiry for a province in Poland," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 115(2), pages 1-8, June.
    12. Luke Milsom & Vladimír Pažitka & Isabelle Roland & Dariusz Wójcik, 2020. "Gravity in international finance: evidence from fees on equity transactions," CEP Discussion Papers dp1703, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Olga Balakina & Angelo D’Andrea & Donato Masciandaro, 2017. "Bank secrecy in offshore centres and capital flows: Does blacklisting matter?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 30-57, January.
    14. MacDonald, Margaux, 2017. "International capital market frictions and spillovers from quantitative easing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-156.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Okawa, Yohei & van Wincoop, Eric, 2012. "Gravity in International Finance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 205-215.
    2. Forbes, Kristin J., 2010. "Why do foreigners invest in the United States?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 3-21, January.
    3. Bergin, Paul R. & Pyun, Ju Hyun, 2016. "International portfolio diversification and multilateral effects of correlations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 52-71.
    4. Hattari, Rabin & S. Rajan, Ramkishen, 2011. "How Different are FDI and FPI Flows?: Distance and Capital Market Integration," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 26, pages 499-525.
    5. Brei, Michael & von Peter, Goetz, 2018. "The distance effect in banking and trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 116-137.
    6. Martijn A. Boermans & Robert Vermeulen, 2020. "International investment positions revisited: Investor heterogeneity and individual security characteristics," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 466-496, May.
    7. Hellmanzik, Christiane & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "Taking gravity online: The role of virtual proximity in international finance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 164-179.
    8. Fabian J. Baier & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2019. "The UK’s banking FDI flows and Total British FDI: a dynamic BREXIT analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 193-213, March.
    9. Rogelio Mercado Jr., 2018. "Bilateral Capital Flows: Transaction Patterns and Gravity," Working Papers wp30, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    10. Rabin Hattari & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2011. "How Different are FDI and FPI Flows?: Does Distance Alter the Composition of Capital Flows?," Working Papers 092011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    11. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    12. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    13. Vermeulen, Robert, 2013. "International diversification during the financial crisis: A blessing for equity investors?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 104-123.
    14. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70969520 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Didier, Tatiana & Llovet, Ruth & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2017. "International financial integration of East Asia and Pacific," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 52-66.
    16. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2011. "International portfolio diversification is better than you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 289-308, March.
    17. Pat McAllister & Anupam Nanda, 2016. "Does Real Estate Defy Gravity? An Analysis of Foreign Real Estate Investment Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 924-948, November.
    18. Bhamra, Harjoat S. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2014. "A dynamic equilibrium model of imperfectly integrated financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 490-542.
    19. Daude, Christian & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2008. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 94-119, January.
    20. Abid, Fathi & Bahloul, Slah, 2011. "Selected MENA countries' attractiveness to G7 investors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2197-2207, September.
    21. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g70969520 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Milsom, L. & Pažitka, V. & Roland, I. & Wójcik, D., 2020. "Gravity in International Finance: Evidence From Fees on Equity Transactions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2059, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    geography of asset holdings; gravity model; hysteresis; International Finance; international role of the dollar; persistence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121466. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.