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Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan Kara

    () (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department)

  • Fethi Ogunc

    () (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department)

  • Umit Ozlale

    () (TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics)

  • Cagri Sarikaya

    () (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department)

Abstract

Univariate filters used in output gap estimation are subject to criticism as being purely statistical and having no economic content. The information content of the output gap measures estimated by standard multivariate filtering techniques, on the other hand, can be distorted because of the possibly unrealistic restriction that system parameters stay constant over time. In this study, we seek to address these shortcomings by proposing an output gap estimation method that takes into account changing economic relations. We employ a nonlinear time series framework along with the extended Kalman filter, in which economic content is used by inflation and output gap dynamics and the parameters are allowed to be time varying. We use the Turkish economy as a laboratory to show that our method provides useful results, both in terms of the properties of output gap estimates and for the assessment of change in macroeconomic dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc & Umit Ozlale & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 269-289, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:74:1:y:2007:p:269-289
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Tugrul Gurgur & Fethi Ogunc, 2008. "Islenmis Gida Fiyatlarini Belirleyen Faktorler," Working Papers 0809, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Fatih Ozatay, 2008. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0805, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    3. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Eda Gulsen & Musa Orak, 2010. "2008 Hedef Revizyonu Oncesi ve Sonrasinda Enflasyon Beklentileri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1001, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Aktas, Zelal & Kaya, Neslihan & Özlale, Ümit, 2010. "Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 123-138, February.
    5. Çiçek, Serkan, 2012. "Globalization and flattening of Phillips Curve in Turkey between 1987 and 2007," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1655-1661.
    6. Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2013. "Do We Really Need Filters In Estimating Output Gap? : Evidence From Turkey," Working Papers 1333, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2014. "Switching impacts of the output gap on inflation: Evidence from Canada, the UK and the US," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-285.
    8. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011. "Mongolia; Measuring the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 11/79, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Fethi Oğunc & Inci Batmaz, 2009. "Estimating the neutral real interest rate in an emerging market economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 683-693.
    10. Evren Erdogan Cosar & Sevim Kosem & Cagri Sarikaya, 2012. "Alternatif Cikti Acigi Gostergeleri," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1222, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    11. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Hakan Kara & Defne Mutluer, 2008. "Expectations, Communication and Monetary Policy in Turkey," Working Papers 0801, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    12. Murat Ungor, 2012. "A Production Function Method of Estimating the Output Gap," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1219, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    13. Nicolas E Magud & Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 12/243, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Fatih Ozatay, 2013. "Likely Candidates: Next BRICs? Turkey," Working Papers 1305, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2013.
    15. Fatih Ozatay, 2013. "Turkey's Distressing Dance with Capital Flows," Working Papers 1306, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2013.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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