IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey

Listed author(s):
  • Fatih Ozatay

After the February 2001 crisis, Turkey started to implement a new economic program. One of its aims was to reduce public debt that had jumped to a record high level. The resulting fiscal consolidation was rather exceptional. By the end of 2006, public debt-to-GDP ratio had declined by 43 percentage points. Despite this outstanding fiscal consolidation, the average growth rate attained in this period was almost twice that of the long-term growth rate. Given that shallowness of the Turkish financial markets had lead to credit constraints, it was tempting to study the reasons behind this performance. We argue that fiscal consolidation sharply reduced default risk, increased business confidence and improved banks’ and nonfinancial firms’ balance sheets, causing, in turn, a significant rise in credit supply and demand. Improvement in the private sector’s balance sheets and a decline in the option value of waiting, both together, boosted private sector demand.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://ikt.web.etu.edu.tr/RePEc/pdf/0805.pdf
File Function: First version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0805.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Handle: RePEc:tob:wpaper:0805
Contact details of provider: Phone: (+90 312) 292-4000
Fax: (+90 312) 287-1946
Web page: http://ikt.web.etu.edu.tr/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
  2. Francesco Giavazzi & Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 7460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Marcel, Mario & Tokman R., Marcelo & Valdés, Rodrigo O. & Benavides, Paula, 2003. "Structural budget balance: methodology and estimation for the Chilean central government 1987-2001," Seminarios y Conferencias 6573, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  4. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Hakan Kara & Fethi Ogunc & Umit Ozlale & Cagri Sarikaya, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap in a Changing Economy," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 269-289, July.
  6. Mehtap Kesriyeli & Erdal Ozmen & Serkan Yigit, 2005. "Corporate Sector Debt Composition and Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effect in Turkey," ERC Working Papers 0507, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2005.
  7. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 2015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1995. "Sovereign credit ratings," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 1(Jun).
  9. Afonso, António & Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp, 2005. "Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries," Working Paper Series 0473, European Central Bank.
  10. Fatih Ozatay & Erdal Ozmen & Gülbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2007. "Emerging Market Sovereign Spreads, Global Financial Conditions and U.S. Macroeconomic News," ERC Working Papers 0707, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Dec 2007.
  11. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry, 2003. "Keynesian, non-Keynesian or no effects of fiscal policy changes? The EMU case," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 213-240, June.
  12. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2924, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Philippe BACCHETTA & Stefan GERLACH, 1997. "Consumption and Credit Constraints : International Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9707, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  15. Ortiz, Alberto & Pablo, Ottonello & Sturzenegger, Federico & Talvi, Ernesto, 2007. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Sudden Stop: Is Tighter Brighter?," Working Paper Series rwp07-057, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  16. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1988. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfection: An International Comparison," CEPR Discussion Papers 244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. F. Giavazzi & M. Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of two Small Euopean Countries," Working Papers 89, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  18. Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto, 1998. "Tales of Fiscal Adjustment," Scholarly Articles 2579822, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  20. Cafer Kaplan & Erdal Ozmen & Cihan Yalcin, 2006. "The Determinants and Implications of Financial Asset Holdings of Non-Financial Firms in Turkey : An Emprical Investigation," Working Papers 0606, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  21. Benedetti, Marina & Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2005. "Searching for Non-Monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Fatih Ozatay & Guven Sak, 2003. "Banking Sector Fragility and Turkey’s 2000–01 Financial Crisis," Working Papers 0308, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  23. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  24. Olcay Yucel Culha & Fatih Ozatay & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2006. "The Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 0604, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  25. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
  26. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. Hasan Ersel & Fatih Ãzatay, 2008. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(6), pages 38-51, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tob:wpaper:0805. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ismail Saglam)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.