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Estimating the Output Gap for Chile

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  • Rodrigo Fuentes
  • Fabián Gredig
  • Mauricio Larraín

Abstract

In this paper we estimate the output gap and the growth rate of potential output in Chile for the 1986-2005 period, using three different methods: (i) a production function approach, (ii) a Kalman filter approach (univariate and multivariate), and (iii) a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). A high degree of consistency was found among all measures in terms of the sign of the output gap. According to all methods, economic overheating is observed at the beginning of the sample; from 1993 until the Asian Crisis the gap is not very large but is always positive, after the Asian Crisis the gap measures show a smooth tendency to a level close to zero. In order to compare the output gaps generated under the different methodologies, we evaluate the real-time performance of the output gap measures and measure how well the output gap can help forecast future inflation. Regarding the potential output growth, the methods yield broadly similar estimations. Over the complete sample, the average potential growth rate is around 5.6%. However, there seems to be important differences across sub-periods, particularly the growth rate is below the average in the period after the 1999 recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig & Mauricio Larraín, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 455, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:455
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    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Gallardo & Andrés Sagner, 2010. "Valorización por Arbitraje de Bonos y Acciones Chilenas Mediante el Método de Componentes Principales," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 557, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Felipe Morandé & Mauricio Tejada, 2009. "Sources of Uncertainty in Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 12, pages 451-509, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Arturo Antón-Sarabia, 2008. "El problema al final de la muestra en la estimación del PIB potencial," Working papers DTE 442, CIDE, División de Economía.
    4. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Estimating the Chilean Natural Rate of Interest," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 448, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Chile: Selected Issues Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2010/299, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Donal McGettigan & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Mr. Jean F Noah Ndela Ntsama & Mr. Francois Painchaud & Mr. Haonan Qu & Mr. Chad Steinberg, 2013. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Taming the Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2013/096, International Monetary Fund.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Russian Federation: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/176, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Felipe Morandé & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 492, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.

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