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Produto Potencial: Conceitos, Métodos de Estimação e Aplicação à Economia Brasileira

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  • José Ronaldo de Castro Souza Júnior

Abstract

The potential output is an unobservable variable and therefore it is hard to measure.The aim of this paper is to contribute to the discussion of the potential outputestimation by making a theoretical and methodological survey and estimating thevariable for the Brazilian economy. After a quick analysis about the main conceptsrelated to this issue and the estimation methods most used in the internationalliterature, it was chosen to use two kinds of combinations among the productionfunction method and the HP filter. The main conclusions of this paper were: firstly,the potential output is highly responsive to the method used; secondly, based onquarterly Brazilian data, it was possible to observe that the economic growth recoveryinitiated at the end of 2003 was not followed by an increase of the potential outputin the same proportion.

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  • José Ronaldo de Castro Souza Júnior, 2005. "Produto Potencial: Conceitos, Métodos de Estimação e Aplicação à Economia Brasileira," Discussion Papers 1130, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1130
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    2. Luiz de Mello, 2009. "Brazil's Growth Performance: Achievements and Prospects," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2009-55, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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