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Russian Federation: Selected Issues

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  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output and the output gap in Russia. Estimating potential output in Russia is difficult because its economy is large and complex, in transition, and dependent on oil. First, Russia presents large territorial and sectoral heterogeneity. Second, structural issues are difficult to estimate in transition economies. Third, the energy sector dominates exports and GDP, making Russia vulnerable to large terms of trade shocks. This paper estimates potential output taking into account these challenges and using a variety of methodologies. The results obtained show that the output gap in Russia exhibits high uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Russian Federation: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/176, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2014/176
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    Cited by:

    1. Shyam Upadhyaya & Liudmila Kitrar & Georgy Vladimirovich Ostapkovich & Tamara Lipkind, 2016. "The Main Vectors of Cross-Border Development in the CIS Industrial and Economic Space: Convergence, Potential, Cross-Country Gaps," HSE Working papers WP BRP 60/STI/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    2. World Bank, 2014. "Kyrgyz Republic - The Garment Sector : Impact of Joining the Customs Union and Options to Increase Competitiveness," World Bank Publications - Reports 21103, The World Bank Group.

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