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Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy

Author

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  • João Sousa Andrade

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal)

  • António Portugal Duarte

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and GEMF, Portugal)

Abstract

The Fiscal Compact has created new responsibilities in terms of quantitative measures of excess demand in the economy. The concept of structural budget balance is dependent on cycle values. As a consequence one of the primary responsibilities of economics is to build a good indicator of the magnitude of short term disequilibrium. Knowledge of the magnitude of the excess demand in the economy is essential for an appropriate application of the Fiscal Compact. The usual empirical concepts of output gap are not sufficiently well designed to give an accurate view of the negative excess demand when there are output breaks in the economy. The information produced by different (quasi-) official output gaps is quite often misleading, contributing to a rise in the unemployment rate. We propose a solution that might contribute to solve this problem that is clearly a crucial one for the PIIGS in times of crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • João Sousa Andrade & António Portugal Duarte, 2014. "Output-gaps in the PIIGS Economies: An Ingredient of a Greek Tragedy," GEMF Working Papers 2014-06, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    • Handle: RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2014-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural deficit; output gap; Cobb-Douglas production function filter; Beveridge and Nelson filter and Hodrick-Prescott filter.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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