Trend-cycle decomposition of output and euro area inflation forecasts: a real-time approach based on model combination
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- Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2015. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition Of Output And Euro Area Inflation Forecasts: A Real-Time Approach Based On Model Combination," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 363-393, March.
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- James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020.
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- James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2017-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Morley, James & Wong, Benjamin, 2018. "Estimating and Accounting for the Output Gap with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2018-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2019.
- Zivile Zekaite & Gabe de Bondt & Elke Hahn, 2017.
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- González-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019.
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- Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo, 2018. "An Output Gap Measure for the Euro Area : Exploiting Country-Level and Cross-Sectional Data Heterogeneity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-040, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Daniel Gros & Alessandro Liscai & Farzaneh Shamsfakhr, 2022. "Planned Fiscal Consolidation and Under-Estimated Multipliers: Revisiting the Evidence and Relevance for the Euro Area," EconPol Policy Reports 35, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille & Mohanad Salameh & Pierre St-Amant, 2018. "Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation," Staff Working Papers 18-10, Bank of Canada.
- Susanne Maidorn, 2018. "Is there a trade-off between procyclicality and revisions in EC trend TFP estimations?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 59-82, February.
- Pichette, Lise & Robitaille, Marie-Noëlle & Salameh, Mohanad & St-Amant, Pierre, 2019. "Dismiss the output gaps? To use with caution given their limitations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 199-215.
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More about this item
Keywords
auxiliary information; inflation forecast; Kalman filter; Markov-switching; model averaging; Phillips curve; real-time analysis; trend-cycle decomposition; unobserved components model;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CBA-2011-10-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2011-10-15 (Econometrics)
- NEP-EEC-2011-10-15 (European Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-10-15 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2011-10-15 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-10-15 (Monetary Economics)
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