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The Low Predictive Power of Simple Phillips Curves in Chile: A Real-Time Evaluation

  • Pablo Pincheira
  • Hernán Rubio

In this article we explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that several activity measures make when predicting inflation in Chile. For that purpose, we use backward-looking Phillips curves and make use of a real-time database to get an evaluation of predictive ability consistent with the uncertainty faced by policy-makers when making decisions in real time. Our main results confirm those shown by the recent literature in the USA: the predictive contribution of the GDP measures considered here is episodic, unstable and of moderate size. These results are robust to the estimation being made with either revised or real-time data. This holds true in a context in which final and first vintage GDP measures are shown to differ significantly and to generate quite different inflation forecasts.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 559.

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Date of creation: Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:559
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  1. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2006. "The Predictive Content of the Output Gap for Inflation: Resolving In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1127-1148, August.
  2. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  4. Rómulo A. Chumacero & Francisco A. Gallego, 2001. "Trends and Cycles in Real-Time," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 130, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Benjamín García S. & Juan Pablo Medina G., 2009. "Efectos de Primas Financieras Sobre la Actividad Agregada," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(3), pages 89-101, December.
  6. Michael Pedersen, 2010. "Extracting GDP Signals From the Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity: Evidence From Chilean Real-Time Data," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 595, Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  8. Pablo Pincheira, 2010. "A Real Time Evaluation of the Central Bank of Chile GDP Growth Forecasts," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 37-73, January-J.
  9. Marcus Cobb, 2009. "Forecasting Chilean Inflation From Disaggregate Components," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 545, Central Bank of Chile.
  10. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig & Mauricio Larraín, 2008. "La brecha de producto en Chile: medición y evaluación," Investigación Conjunta - español, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 69-102 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
  11. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Stability of Monetary Policy Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 94-104, February.
  12. Álvaro Aguirre R. & Luis Felipe Céspedes C., 2004. "Uso de Análisis Factorial Dinámico para Proyecciones Macroeconómicas," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 274, Central Bank of Chile.
  13. Dalibor Eterovic, 2009. "Policy Reform Under Electoral Uncertainty," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 546, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Luis F. Céspedes & Marcelo Ochoa & Claudio Soto, 2005. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 355, Central Bank of Chile.
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