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Taylor Rules and the Euro

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  • TANYA MOLODTSOVA
  • ALEX NIKOLSKO‐RZHEVSKYY
  • DAVID H. PAPELL

Abstract

This article uses real‐time data to show that inflation and either the output gap or unemployment, variables which normally enter central banks’ Taylor rules, can provide evidence of out‐of‐sample predictability for the U.S. dollar/euro exchange rate from 1999 to 2007. The strongest evidence is found for specifications that constrain the coefficients on inflation and real economic activity to be the same for the United States and the Euro Area, do not incorporate interest rate smoothing, and do not include the real exchange rate in the forecasting regression. Evidence of predictability is found with both one‐quarter‐ahead and longer‐horizon forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Tanya Molodtsova & Alex Nikolsko‐Rzhevskyy & David H. Papell, 2011. "Taylor Rules and the Euro," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 535-552, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:43:y:2011:i:2-3:p:535-552
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2011.00384.x
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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