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Incorporating Financial Sector Risk into Monetary Policy Models: Application to Chile

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  • Dale Gray
  • Carlos García
  • Leonardo Luna
  • Jorge E. Restrepo

Abstract

This paper presents a model for the financial sector’s vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework commonly used in monetary policymaking. The main question to answer with the integrated model is whether central banks should explicitly include the financial stability indicator in the reaction function of the monetary policy interest rate. Our results show that, in general, including the banking industry’s distance to default (dtd) in the central bank’s reaction function reduces both inflation and output volatility. In addition, the results are robust to different calibrations of the model. Actually, there is gained efficiency from including the dtd variable in the reaction function whenever the pass-through coefficient of the exchange rate is higher and when financial vulnerability has a greater effect on the exchange rate and GDP (or, conversely, a higher effect of GDP in banking sector capital, which is here called endogeneity).

Suggested Citation

  • Dale Gray & Carlos García & Leonardo Luna & Jorge E. Restrepo, 2009. "Incorporating Financial Sector Risk into Monetary Policy Models: Application to Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 553, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:553
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    1. repec:jes:wpaper:y:2013:v:5:p:535-547 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alberto Naudon, 2010. "A Stochastic Assignment Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 558, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Rodrigo A. Alfaro & Rodrigo Cifuentes S., 2011. "Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 1, pages 001-010, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Kannan Prakash & Rabanal Pau & Scott Alasdair M., 2012. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-44, June.
    5. Moisa Altar & Adam-Nelu Altar-Samuel & Ioana Marcu, 2014. "Measuring Systemic Risk using Contingent Claims Analysis (CCA)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 22-48, December.
    6. Renata Karkowska, 2013. "Instability In The Cee Banking System. Evidence From The Recent Financial Crisis," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 5(4), pages 535-547, December.
    7. Mr. Alasdair Scott & Mr. Pau Rabanal & Mr. Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts," IMF Working Papers 2009/252, International Monetary Fund.
    8. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Shigeto Kitano & Kenya Takaku, 2016. "External Debt and Taylor Rules in a Small Open Economy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 541-559, December.
    10. Pablo Pincheira & Hernán Rubio, 2010. "The Low Predictive Power of Simple Phillips Curves in Chile: A Real-Time Evaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 559, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. N. Johnson, Leroy, 2022. "Financial Frictions And Monetary Policy Shocks In Sierra Leone: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 9(2), pages 78-96, June.
    12. Francis Leni Anguyo & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotzé, 2020. "Monetary policy and financial frictions in a small open-economy model for Uganda," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1213-1241, September.
    13. Piotr Żoch, 2020. "Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Rules in a Model with Collateral Constraints," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 43-69.
    14. Burcu Aydin & Mr. Myeongsuk Kim & Mr. Ho-Seong Moon, 2011. "Financial Linkages Across Korean Banks," IMF Working Papers 2011/201, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Pablo Pincheira, 2010. "A Real Time Evaluation of the Central Bank of Chile GDP Growth Forecasts," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 37-73, January-J.
    16. Karkowska, Renata, 2014. "Is the Central and Eastern European banking systems stable? Evidence from the recent financial crisis," MPRA Paper 58803, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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