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Currency Mismatches and Corporate Default Risk: Modeling, Measurement, and Surveillance Applications

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  • Mr. Andre O Santos
  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau

Abstract

Currency mismatches in corporate balance sheets have been singled out as an important factor underlying the severity of recent financial crises. We propose several structural models for measuring default risk for firms with currency mismatches in their asset/liability structure. The proposed models can be adapted to different exchange rate regimes, are analytically tractable, and can be estimated using available equity price and balance sheet data. The paper provides a detailed explanation on how to calibrate the models and discusses two applications to financial surveillance: the measurement of systematic risk in the corporate sector and the estimation of prudential leverage ratios consistent with regulatory capital ratios in the banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Andre O Santos & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Currency Mismatches and Corporate Default Risk: Modeling, Measurement, and Surveillance Applications," IMF Working Papers 2006/269, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/269
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Byström, Hans, 2016. "The Currency Composition of Firms' Balance Sheets and its Effect on Asset Value Correlations and Capital Requirements," Working Papers 2016:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    3. Jose Giancarlo Gasha & Mr. Andre O Santos & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Mr. Marcos R Souto & Christian Capuano, 2009. "Recent Advances in Credit Risk Modeling," IMF Working Papers 2009/162, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Stacia Howard, 2009. "Stress testing with incomplete data: a practical guide," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring financial innovation and its impact", Basel, 26-27 August 2008, volume 31, pages 344-355, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Dan Galai & Zvi Wiener, 2012. "Credit Risk Spreads in Local and Foreign Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 883-901, August.
    6. Byström, Hans, 2017. "The currency composition of firms' balance sheets, asset value correlations, and capital requirements," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-99.
    7. Mirjana Obadovic & Veselin Avdaliovic & Milica Obadovic, 2010. "Serbian Insurance Market – Select Issues," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 55(187), pages 109-124, October –.
    8. Miloš Božović & Branko Urošević & Boško Živković, 2009. "On The Spillover Of Exchangerate Risk Into Default Risk," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 54(183), pages 32-55, October -.

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