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Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)

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Abstract

The literature on modeling defaults in individual financial institutions has expanded dramatically. However, the links between defaults in individual institutions and system-wide crises remain inadequately understood, despite some recent attempts to transpose the existing indicators of the probability of default in individual institutions to the systemic level. The paper argues that any measure of systemic stability should incorporate three elements: probabilities of failure in individual financial institutions, loss given default in financial institutions, and correlation of defaults across institutions. It contains a review of existing measures of financial stability and finds that they generally fall short of this standard. The author demonstrates that looking at the distribution of systemic loss can lead to a clearer differentiation of cases of stability and instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin CIHAK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:57:y:2007:i:1-2:p:5-26
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    Cited by:

    1. Efthymios G. Tsionas, 2014. "On modeling banking risk," Working Papers 183, Bank of Greece.
    2. Hassan Belkacem Ghassan & Abdelkrim Ahmed Guendouz, 2019. "Panel modeling of z-score: evidence from Islamic and conventional Saudi banks," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(3), pages 448-468, July.
    3. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Tsionas, Mike G., 2016. "Parameters measuring bank risk and their estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 291-304.
    5. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    6. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Taher, Farid B., 2013. "Financial Stability of Islamic and Conventional Banks in Saudi Arabia: Evidence using Pooled and Panel Models," MPRA Paper 54472, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2013.
    7. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Molyneux, Phil, 2018. "Diversification and bank stability in the GCC," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 17-43.
    8. Mr. Martin Cihak & Ms. Petya Koeva Brooks, 2009. "From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2009/069, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Dalenda Khouaja & Salem Lotfi Boumediene, 2014. "Regulation and Bank Deficiency: Evidence from Europe," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 8(5), pages 23-33.
    10. Hassan Ghassan & Stefano Fachin & Abdelkarim Guendouz, 2013. "Financial Stability of Islamic and Conventional Banks in Saudi Arabia: a Time Series Analysis," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2013/1, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
    11. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    12. Naceur, Sami Ben & Candelon, Bertrand & Lajaunie, Quentin, 2019. "Taming financial development to reduce crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Asghar Ali & Kevin Daly, 2010. "What Explain Credit Defaults? A Comparative Study," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 6, pages 51-65.
    14. Noor-e-Saher & Mehran Herbert, 2010. "Response of Long-term Interest Rate to Fiscal Imbalance: Evidence from Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 6, pages 43-49.
    15. Ali, Asghar & Daly, Kevin, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 165-171, June.
    16. Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Mr. Martin Cihak, 2009. "Distress in European Banks: An Analysis Basedon a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 2009/009, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2010. "Forecasting The Romanian Financial System Stability Using A Stochastic Simulation Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 81-98, March.
    18. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Krichene, Noureddine, 2017. "Financial Stability of Conventional and Islamic Banks: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Klaus Schaeck & Martin Cihak & Andrea Maechler & Stephanie Stolz, 2011. "Who Disciplines Bank Managers?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 197-243.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    failures; financial sector; market-based indicators; soundness indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • K20 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - General
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General

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