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Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)

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Abstract

The literature on modeling defaults in individual financial institutions has expanded dramatically. However, the links between defaults in individual institutions and system-wide crises remain inadequately understood, despite some recent attempts to transpose the existing indicators of the probability of default in individual institutions to the systemic level. The paper argues that any measure of systemic stability should incorporate three elements: probabilities of failure in individual financial institutions, loss given default in financial institutions, and correlation of defaults across institutions. It contains a review of existing measures of financial stability and finds that they generally fall short of this standard. The author demonstrates that looking at the distribution of systemic loss can lead to a clearer differentiation of cases of stability and instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin CIHAK, 2007. "Systemic Loss: A Measure of Financial Stability (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 5-26, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:57:y:2007:i:1-2:p:5-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Taher, Farid B., 2013. "Financial Stability of Islamic and Conventional Banks in Saudi Arabia: Evidence using Pooled and Panel Models," MPRA Paper 54472, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2013.
    2. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    3. Klaus Schaeck & Martin Cihak & Andrea Maechler & Stephanie Stolz, 2011. "Who Disciplines Bank Managers?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 197-243.
    4. Efthymios G. Tsionas, 2014. "On modeling banking risk," Working Papers 183, Bank of Greece.
    5. Casu, Barbara & Clare, Andrew & Saleh, Nashwa, 2011. "Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries," MPRA Paper 37043, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Cihak, 2009. "Distress in European Banks; An Analysis Basedon a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 09/9, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Tsionas, Mike G., 2016. "Parameters measuring bank risk and their estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 291-304.
    8. Hassan Ghassan & Stefano Fachin & Abdelkarim Guendouz, 2013. "Financial Stability of Islamic and Conventional Banks in Saudi Arabia: a Time Series Analysis," DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series 2013/1, Centre for Empirical Economics and Econometrics, Department of Statistics, "Sapienza" University of Rome.
    9. Ali, Asghar & Daly, Kevin, 2010. "Macroeconomic determinants of credit risk: Recent evidence from a cross country study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 165-171, June.
    10. Martin Cihak & Petya Koeva Brooks, 2009. "From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/69, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Noor-e-Saher & Mehran Herbert, 2010. "Response of Long-term Interest Rate to Fiscal Imbalance: Evidence from Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 6, pages 43-49.
    12. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Krichene, Noureddine, 2017. "Financial Stability of Conventional and Islamic Banks: A Survey," MPRA Paper 82372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2010. "Forecasting The Romanian Financial System Stability Using A Stochastic Simulation Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 81-98, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    failures; financial sector; market-based indicators; soundness indicators;

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • K20 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - General
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General

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