Extracting Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility from Market Prices - Estonia Focus
Banking reform has proved to be one of the most problematic elements of economic transition in central and eastern Europe. Therefore the paper considers the development of the Estonian banking sector and derives individual banks´ fragility scores during transition. To this end we use option-based tools and equity prices to estimate distance-to-default measures of banks´ distress probabilities. Overall, the results suggest that market indicators are moderately useful for anticipating future financial distress and rating changes in transition economies. The implication for an effective supervisory framework is to use a plurality of risk scores when assessing bank vulnerability.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Dundee, DD1 4HN|
Phone: (01382) 344375
Fax: (01382) 344691
Web page: http://www.dundee.ac.uk/econman/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999.
"The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems,"
14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000.
"Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-38, August.
- Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2000. "Systemic risk, interbank relations, and liquidity provision by the central bank," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 611-640.
- X. Freixas & B. Parigi & J-C. Rochet, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by theCentral Bank," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 47, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Xavier Freixas & Bruno Parigi & Jean Charles Rochet, 1998. "Systemic risk, interbank relations and liquidity provision by the Central Bank," Economics Working Papers 440, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 1999.
- Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1999. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," CEPR Discussion Papers 2325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2006.
"Equity and Bond Market Signals as Leading Indicators of Bank Fragility,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 399-428, March.
- Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Gropp, Reint & Vesala, Jukka & Vulpes, Giuseppe, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Working Paper Series 0150, European Central Bank.
- Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005.
"Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress; A Survey,"
IMF Working Papers
05/96, International Monetary Fund.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2005. "Cross-country empirical studies of systemic bank distress : a survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3719, The World Bank.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Reint Gropp & Vesala Jukka & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004.
"Market Indicators, Bank Fragility, and Indirect Market Discipline,"
- Reint Gropp & Jukka M. Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 53-62.
- Jeffery W. Gunther & Mark E. Levonian & Robert R. Moore, 2001. "Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-9.
- Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Alain Bensoussan & Michel Crouhy & Dan Galai, 1994. "Stochastic equity volatility related to the leverage effect," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 63-85.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
- Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983.
"Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
- Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
- Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dun:dpaper:185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andrzej Kwiatkowski)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.