IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sector

  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Andreas Pick

This paper considers the issue of forecasting financial fragility of banks and insurances using a panel data set of performance indicators, namely distance-to-default, taking unobserved common factors into account. We show that common factors are important in the performance of banks and insurances, analyze the influences of a number of observable factors on banking and insurance performance, and evaluate the forecasts from our model. We find that taking unobserved common factors into account reduces the root mean square forecasts error of �� firm specific forecasts by up to 11% and of system forecasts by up to 29% relative to a model based only on observed variables. Estimates of the factor loadings suggest that the correlation of financial institutions has been relatively stable over the forecast period.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.dnb.nl/binaries/Working%20paper%20202_tcm46-212960.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department in its series DNB Working Papers with number 202.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:202
Contact details of provider: Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam
Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2009. "Bank Competition and International Financial Integration:Evidence Using a New Index," Working Papers 242009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  3. Jonas Dovern & Carsten-Patrick Meier & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2008. "How Resilient is the German Banking System to Macroeconomic Shocks?," Kiel Working Papers 1419, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  5. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 1229, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Amer Demirovic & Dylan Thomas, 2007. "The Relevance of Accounting Data in the Measurement of Credit Risk," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 253-268.
  8. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  9. Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2003. "Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices," Working Paper Series 0297, European Central Bank.
  10. von Hagen, Jürgen & Ho, Tai-kuang, 2004. "Money market pressure and the determinants of baning crises," ZEI Working Papers B 20-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  11. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  13. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  14. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting Using a Large Number of Predictors: Is Bayesian Regression a Valid Alternative to Principal Components?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," NBER Working Papers 10220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 642-675, October.
  17. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2008. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  18. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  19. Jacob A. Bikker & Haixia Hu, 2002. "Cyclical patterns in profits, provisioning and lending of banks and procyclicality of the new Basel capital requirements," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(221), pages 143-175.
  20. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
  22. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena, 2006. "Credit risk transfer and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 89-111, January.
  23. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  24. Marco Stringa & Allan Monks, 2007. "Inter-industry contagion between UK life insurers and UK banks: an event study," Bank of England working papers 325, Bank of England.
  25. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 0035, European Central Bank.
  26. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Toni Gravelle, 2005. "The End; A New Indicator of Financial and Nonfinancial Corporate Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 05/231, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Akram, Q. Farooq & Eitrheim, Øyvind, 2008. "Flexible inflation targeting and financial stability: Is it enough to stabilize inflation and output?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1242-1254, July.
  28. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas, 2007. "Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1245-1277, April.
  29. Asquith, Paul & Mullins, David W, Jr, 1983. "The Impact of Initiating Dividend Payments on Shareholders' Wealth," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 77-96, January.
  30. Uhde, André & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2009. "Consolidation in banking and financial stability in Europe: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1299-1311, July.
  31. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
  32. Roni Michaely & Richard H. Thaler & Kent Womack, 1994. "Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," NBER Working Papers 4778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 239-53, January.
  34. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Smith, L. Vanessa, 2009. "Rejoinder to comments on forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 703-715, October.
  35. Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
  37. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2009. "The identification of technology regimes in banking: Implications for the market power-fragility nexus," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1413-1422, August.
  38. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
  39. Gary Gorton, 1986. "Banking panics and business cycles," Working Papers 86-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  40. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  41. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
  42. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  43. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
  44. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.