Can the stock market tell bank supervisors anything they don't already know?
This article provides evidence consistent with recent policy proposals calling for a greater role for market forces in promoting a safe and sound financial system. The authors' empirical results indicate a measure of expected default probability distilled from equity prices helps predict the financial condition of individual banking organizations, as reflected in their supervisory ratings. Moreover, the stock market data have predictive power over and above the information in the quarterly financial statements available to supervisors between inspections. These findings suggest financial markets can provide useful information to supplement supervisory assessments, particularly between inspections, and point to the value of additional research to further clarify the information content of market prices and quantities.
Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
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- Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000.
"Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-67, August.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 2000. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 641-670.
- Allen N. Berger & Sally M. Davies & Mark J. Flannery, 1998. "Comparing market and supervisory assessments of bank performance: who knows what when?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Merton, Robert C., 1973.
"On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates,"
684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
- Flannery, Mark J, 1998. "Using Market Information in Prudential Bank Supervision: A Review of the U.S. Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 273-305, August.
- Krainer, John & Lopez, Jose A, 2004.
"Incorporating Equity Market Information into Supervisory Monitoring Models,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1043-67, December.
- John Krainer & Jose A. Lopez, 2001. "Incorporating equity market information into supervisory monitoring models," Working Paper Series 2001-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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