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Distance to Default and the Financial Crisis

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  • Alistair Milne

    (School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, UK)

Abstract

This paper analyses contingent-claims based measures of distance to default (D2D) for the 41 largest global banking institutions over the period 2006H2 to 20011H2. D2D falls from end-2006 through to end-2008. Cross-sectional differences in D2D prior to the crisis do not predict either bank failure or bank share prices decline, but D2D measured in mid-2008 does have some predictive value for failure by end-year. The ‘option value’ of the bank safety net remains small except at the height of the crisis and there is little indication of bank shareholders consciously using the safety net to shift risk onto taxpayers. (99 words)

Suggested Citation

  • Alistair Milne, 2013. "Distance to Default and the Financial Crisis," Discussion Paper Series 2013_03, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jun 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2013_03
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    Cited by:

    1. Miller, Scott & Olson, Eric & Yeager, Timothy J., 2015. "The relative contributions of equity and subordinated debt signals as predictors of bank distress during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 118-137.
    2. Mollah, Sabur & Liljeblom, Eva, 2016. "Governance and bank characteristics in the credit and sovereign debt crises – the impact of CEO power11We are grateful to the Editor, Prof. Iftekhar Hasan and three anonymous referees for valuable com," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 59-73.
    3. Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Predicting distress in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
    4. Ghosh, Amit, 2016. "How does banking sector globalization affect banking crisis?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 70-82.
    5. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    6. Samuel Ronnqvist & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Detect & Describe: Deep learning of bank stress in the news," Papers 1507.07870, arXiv.org.
    7. Samuel Ronnqvist & Peter Sarlin, 2016. "Bank distress in the news: Describing events through deep learning," Papers 1603.05670, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2016.
    8. Allen, Linda & Tang, Yi, 2016. "What’s the contingency? A proposal for bank contingent capital triggered by systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-14.
    9. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    10. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Philip Molyneux, 2018. "Beyond Common Equity - The Influence of Secondary Capital on Bank Insolvency Risk," Working Papers 201806, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank default; bank moral hazard; bank regulation; bank safety net; contingent claims; early warning systems; global financial crisis; market-based risk measurement; systemic risk; risk shiftingCreation-Date: 110613;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F54 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Colonialism; Imperialism; Postcolonialism
    • P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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