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Forecasting the Fragility of the Banking and Insurance Sector

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  • Kerstin Bernoth
  • Andreas Pick

Abstract

This paper considers the issue of forecasting financial fragility of banks and insurances using a panel data set of performance indicators, namely distance-to- default, taking unobserved common factors into account. We show that common factors are important in the performance of banks and insurances, analyze the influences of a number of observable factors on banking and insurance performance, and evaluate the forecasts from our model. We find that taking unobserved common factors into account reduces the the root mean square forecasts error of firm specific forecasts by up to 11% and of system forecasts by up to 29% relative to a model based only on observed variables. Estimates of the factor loadings suggest that the correlation of financial institutions has been relatively stable over the forecast period.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerstin Bernoth & Andreas Pick, 2009. "Forecasting the Fragility of the Banking and Insurance Sector," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 882, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp882
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "A market-based approach to sector risk determinants and transmission in the euro area," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4534-4555.
    2. Elahi, M.A., 2011. "Essays on financial fragility," Other publications TiSEM 882f55bb-10dc-4e49-95ef-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Short-term forecasting with business surveys: Evidence for German IHK data at federal state level," HWWI Research Papers 140, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lin, Chun-Wei & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2016. "Financial liberalization, insurance market, and the likelihood of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 25-51.
    5. Mühlnickel, Janina & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2015. "Consolidation and systemic risk in the international insurance industry," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 187-202.
    6. Martín Saldías, 2011. "Sectoral credit risk in the euro area," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. repec:eee:finsta:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:93-106 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Düll, Robert & König, Felix & Ohls, Jana, 2015. "On the exposure of insurance companies to sovereign risk: Portfolio investments and market forces," Discussion Papers 34/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Liu, Guanchun & He, Lei & Yue, Yiding & Wang, Jiying, 2014. "The linkage between insurance activity and banking credit: Some evidence from dynamic analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 239-265.
    10. Hippler, William J. & Hassan, M. Kabir, 2015. "The impact of macroeconomic and financial stress on the U.S. financial sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 61-80.
    11. M. Kabir Hassan & William J. Hippler III, 2013. "The Pronounced Impact of Macroeconomic Stress on the Financial Sector: Implications for Real Sector Growth," NFI Working Papers 2013-WP-01, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    12. Liu, Guanchun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2016. "The dynamic linkage between insurance activities and banking credit: Some new evidence from global countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 40-53.
    13. Miquel Clar-Lopez & Jordi López-Tamayo & Raúl Ramos, 2014. "Unemployment forecasts, time varying coefficient models and the Okun’s law in Spanish regions," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 247-262.
    14. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Chien-Chiang Lee & Godwin Olasehinde-Williams, 2018. "The Synergistic Effect of Insurance and Banking Sector Activities on Economic Growth in Africa," Working Papers 201818, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    15. Schanne, Norbert, 2015. "A Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model for regional labour markets and its forecasting performance with leading indicators in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201513, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Bezemer, Dirk & Grydaki, Maria, 2014. "Financial fragility in the Great Moderation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 169-177.
    17. Koong, Seow Shin & Law, Siong Hook & Ibrahim, Mansor H., 2017. "Credit expansion and financial stability in Malaysia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 339-350.
    18. Vallascas, Francesco & Keasey, Kevin, 2012. "Bank resilience to systemic shocks and the stability of banking systems: Small is beautiful," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1745-1776.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stability; financial linkages; banking; insurances; unobserved common factors; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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