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Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey

  • Mariano Roberto S

    (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University and Department of Economics)

  • Gultekin Bulent N

    (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Ozmucur Suleyman

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Shabbir Tayyeb

    (Univ of Pennsylvania)

  • Alper C. Emre

    (Department of Economics, Bogazici University)

This paper explores the issue of constructing an economic predictive model of financial vulnerability through an alternative econometric methodology that addresses drawbacks in existing approaches. The methodology entails estimating a Markov regime switching model of exchange rate movements, with time-varying transition probabilities. Experiments with monthly and weekly models indicate that real exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and domestic credit/deposit ratio are the most important determinants of financial vulnerability. These variables should be observed very closely by researchers and policy makers in order to determine if the country is heading for financially difficult times.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Review of Middle East Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 2 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 1-21

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:rmeecf:v:2:y:2004:i:2:n:1
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
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  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Rating the Rating Agencies," MPRA Paper 24578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "Financial crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and now," MPRA Paper 13877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, Maria, 2000. "Periods of Currency Pressure: Stylized Facts and Leading Indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 125-158, January.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  11. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
  12. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
  13. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  14. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
  15. Selahattin Dibooglu & Aykut Kibritcioglu, 2001. "Inflation, Output, and Stabilization in a High Inflation Economy: Turkey, 1980-2000," Macroeconomics 0107003, EconWPA, revised 26 Jul 2001.
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