IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/deveco/v46y2008i4p386-427.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Currency Crises In Emerging Markets: The Case Of Post‐Liberalization Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Mete FERIDUN

Abstract

This article investigates the determinants of currency crises in Turkey. It analyzes the two major currency crises of 1994 and 2000–2001 in the light of the existing theoretical models. The present study uses logit, probit, and limited dependent models to explain the currency crises in the post–capital account liberalization era. The results obtained from the three approaches are generally consistent and the coefficients obtained for the explanatory variables generally have the same sign. The findings suggest that the currency crises in Turkey are associated with global liquidity conditions, fiscal imbalances, capital outflows, and banking sector weaknesses.

Suggested Citation

  • Mete FERIDUN, 2008. "Currency Crises In Emerging Markets: The Case Of Post‐Liberalization Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 46(4), pages 386-427, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:46:y:2008:i:4:p:386-427
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1746-1049.2008.00071.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2008.00071.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2008.00071.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher F Baum, 2005. "Stata: The language of choice for time-series analysis?," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 5(1), pages 46-63, March.
    2. Shrestha, M.B. & Chowdhury, K., 2005. "A Sequential Procedure for Testing Unit Roots in the Presence of Structural Break in Time Series Data: An Application to Quarterly Data of Nepal, 1970-2003," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 31-46.
    3. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    4. F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2005. "Currency and Financial Crises in Turkey 2000 –2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 541-572, April.
    5. Mr. Brad Setser & Nouriel Roubini & Mr. Christian Keller & Mr. Mark Allen & Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2002/210, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    7. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "CAPITAL FLOWS AND CAPITAL-MARKET CRISES: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 35-54, November.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mariano Roberto S & Gultekin Bulent N & Ozmucur Suleyman & Shabbir Tayyeb & Alper C. Emre, 2004. "Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-21, August.
    11. Ahmet KIPICI & Mehtap KESRİYELİ, 1997. "Reel Döviz Kuru Tanımları Ve Hesaplama Yöntemleri," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 12(131), pages 16-22.
    12. Neeltje van Horen & Henk Jager & Franc Klaassen, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis: A Regression-Based Approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 374-401, July.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    14. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    15. Herrara, Santiago & Garcia, Conrado, 1999. "User's guide to an early warning system for macroeconomic vulnerability in Latin American countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2233, The World Bank.
    16. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    17. Morris Goldstein & Philip Turner, 2004. "Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 373, October.
    18. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    19. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    20. Inci Parlaktuna, 2005. "Exchange market pressure in Turkey 1993-2004: an application of the girton-roper monetary model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 51-62.
    21. Celasun, Oya, 1998. "The 1994 currency crisis in Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1913, The World Bank.
    22. Vivek Arora & Martin Cerisola, 2001. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-3.
    23. Shrestha, Min B. & Chowdhury, Khorshed, 2005. "Sequential Procedure for Testing Unit Roots in the Presence of Structural Break in Time Series Data," Economics Working Papers wp05-06, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nihat Tak & Adem Gök, 2022. "Dating currency crises and designing early warning systems: Meta‐possibilistic fuzzy index functions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3773-3790, July.
    2. Costel Istrate & Bogdan Robu Ioan, 2014. "L'Analyse De L'Influence Des Composants Des Etats Financiers Sur La Capitalisation Boursière Des Entreprises Roumaines, Dans Les Conditions De La Crise," Post-Print hal-01899159, HAL.
    3. Wajih Khallouli & Mahmoud Sami Nabi, 2010. "Financial Crises’ Prevention and Recovery," Working Papers 529, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2010.
    4. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    5. Adem Gök & Nihat Tak, 2023. "Dating Currency Crisis and Assessing the Determinants Based on Meta Fuzzy Index Functions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(3), pages 1225-1250, March.
    6. Umar Aliyu Shuabiu & Mohammed A. M. Usman & Behiye Çavuşoğlu, 2021. "The Nexus among Competitively Valued Exchange Rates, Price Level, and Growth Performance in the Turkish Economy; New Insight from the Global Value Chains," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-19, November.
    7. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2019. "Identifying the Early Warnings of Currency Crisis in India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 269-299, November.
    8. Ari, Ali & Cergibozan, Raif, 2018. "Currency crises in Turkey: An empirical assessment," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 281-293.
    9. Ivana Marjanoviæ & Milan Markoviæ, 2019. "Determinants of currency crises in the Republic of Serbia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 191-212.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    3. Kemme, David M. & Roy, Saktinil, 2006. "Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-230, October.
    4. Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskih, 2007. "Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 111.
    5. Basabi Bhattacharya & Tanima Niyogi Sinha Roy, 2012. "Indicators of Banking Fragility in India: An Empirical Test," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 13(2), pages 265-290, September.
    6. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 2011. "Currency crises," Working Paper Series 2011-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Morris Goldstein, 2005. "What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?," Working Paper Series WP05-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    8. Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 2003/032, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2015. "Is Real Exchange Rate Misalignment a Leading Indicator of Currency Crises in Nigeria?," MPRA Paper 98353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Licchetta, Mirko, 2009. "Common determinants of currency crises: role of external balance sheet variables," Bank of England working papers 366, Bank of England.
    11. Rakesh Padhan & K. P. Prabheesh, 2019. "Effectiveness Of Early Warning Models: A Critical Review And New Agenda For Future Direction," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 457-484.
    12. Tristan Nguyen & Nguyen Ngoc Duy, 2017. "Developing an Early Warning System for Financial Crises in Vietnam," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(4), pages 413-430, April.
    13. Ivo Krznar, 2004. "Currency Crisis: Theory and Practice with Application to Croatia," Working Papers 12, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    14. Francisco Gildemir Ferreira da Silva & Renata Lúcia Magalhães de Oliveira & Marin Marinov, 2020. "An Analysis of the Effects on Rail Operational Efficiency Due to a Merger between Brazilian Rail Companies: The Case of RUMO-ALL," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-23, June.
    15. Balaga Mohana Rao & Puja Padhi, 2019. "Identifying the Early Warnings of Currency Crisis in India," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(4), pages 269-299, November.
    16. Mete Feridun, 2006. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Application of Signals Approach to Turkey," Discussion Paper Series 2006_26, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006.
    17. Mustapha Djennas & Mohamed Benbouziane & Meriem Djennas, 2011. "An Approach of Combining Empirical Mode Decomposition and Neural Network Learning for Currency Crisis Forecasting," Working Papers 627, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    18. George S. Naufal & Ismail H. Genc, 2015. "Structural Change in MENA Remittance Flows," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 1175-1178, November.
    19. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    20. Mariano Roberto S & Gultekin Bulent N & Ozmucur Suleyman & Shabbir Tayyeb & Alper C. Emre, 2004. "Prediction of Currency Crises: Case of Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-21, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:46:y:2008:i:4:p:386-427. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.