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Testing for Unit Roots in Nepalese Macroeconomic Data

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  • Min Bahadur Shrestha, Ph.D.

    () (Nepal Rastra Bank)

Abstract

Unit root test is viewed as mandatory on time series data since these data may possess specific properties like memory, trend and structural break. The results obtained by employing conventional regression methods without testing for the unit root in time series data might be misleading. This paper presents an overview of various unit root test methods and conducts the unit root test on Nepalese key macroeconomic data allowing one endogenous structural break. The test results show that out of the 18 macroeconomic variables, 10 have unit roots and the remaining 8 are stationary. An analysis of the structural break dates of these variables suggests that the Nepalese economy has gone through a structural change after mid-1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Min Bahadur Shrestha, Ph.D., 2006. "Testing for Unit Roots in Nepalese Macroeconomic Data," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 18, pages 1-19, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:18:y:2006:p:1-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    2. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    3. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    5. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    6. Shrestha, M.B. & Chowdhury, K., 2005. "A Sequential Procedure for Testing Unit Roots in the Presence of Structural Break in Time Series Data: An Application to Quarterly Data of Nepal, 1970-2003," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 31-46.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    8. Shrestha, M.B. & Chowdhury, k., 2006. "Financial Liberalization Index for Nepal," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(1), pages 41-54.
    9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    10. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ram Sharan Kharel Ph.D., 2012. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 24(1), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Ram Sharan Kharel Ph.D., 2012. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth in Nepal," NRB Working Paper 09/2012, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.

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