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Currency crises

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Listed:
  • Reuven Glick
  • Michael M. Hutchison

Abstract

A currency crisis is a speculative attack on the foreign exchange value of a currency, resulting in a sharp depreciation or forcing the authorities to sell foreign exchange reserves and raise domestic interest rates to defend the currency. This article discusses analytical models of the causes of currency and associated crises, presents basic measures of the incidence of crises, evaluates the accuracy of empirical models in predicting crises, and reviews work measuring the consequences of crises on the real economy. Currency crises have large measurable costs on the economy, but our ability to predict the timing and magnitude of crises is limited by our theoretical understanding of the complex interactions between macroeconomic fundamentals, investor expectations and government policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 2011. "Currency crises," Working Paper Series 2011-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2011-22
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2011/wp11-22bk.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    3. Hutchison, Michael M. & Noy, Ilan, 2006. "Sudden stops and the Mexican wave: Currency crises, capital flow reversals and output loss in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 225-248, February.
    4. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-272, January.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 117, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1909, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    9. Glick,Reuven & Moreno,Ramon & Spiegel,Mark M. (ed.), 2001. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521800204.
    10. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The "Overborrowing Syndrome"," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5, pages 7-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    12. Ratna Sahay & Deepak Mishra & Poonam Gupta, 2003. "Output Response to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/230, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises; A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark M. Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar.23.
    15. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:132-143 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Qin, Xiao & Liu, Liya, 2014. "Extremes, return level and identification of currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 439-450.
    3. Ryota Nakatani, 2014. "The Effects of Financial and Real Shocks, Structural Vulnerability and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates from the Perspective of Currency Crises Models," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 043, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. repec:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:11:p:2545-2561 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Koehler-Geib, Friederike Norma, 2008. "The Effect of Uncertainty on the Occurrence and Spread of Financial Crises," Munich Dissertations in Economics 8067, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    6. Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "Why Are Crisis-Induced Devaluations Contractionary? Exploring Alternative Hypotheses," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 526-550.
    7. Ryota Nakatani, 2016. "Twin Banking and Currency Crises and Monetary Policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 747-767, September.

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    Keywords

    Capital movements ; Foreign exchange;

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