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Why Are Crisis-Induced Devaluations Contractionary? Exploring Alternative Hypotheses

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  • Rajan, Ramkishen S.

    () (George Mason University)

  • Shen, Chung-Hua

    () (Department of Money and Banking)

Abstract

Why are some currency crises followed by economic contractions while others are not? This paper is an attempt at answering this query. In particular, we investigate two closely related questions. First, we explore whether there is a difference in the output effects of a devaluation during “normal” periods versus crises ones; after all, during non-crisis periods, real exchange devaluation is seen as an important policy option for promoting exports and output growth. Yet, the literature has not made a distinction between crisis and non-crisis periods. To preview the main conclusion, we find that the contractionary effects tend to exist only during the crisis period. Building on this, we go on to explore the factors that cause a crisis-induced devaluation to be contractionary.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajan, Ramkishen S. & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "Why Are Crisis-Induced Devaluations Contractionary? Exploring Alternative Hypotheses," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 526-550.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0368
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. S. Rajan, Ramkishen, 2010. "The Evolution and Impact of Asian Exchange Rate Regimes," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 208, Asian Development Bank.
    2. Ghosh, Amit & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2009. "Exchange rate pass-through in Korea and Thailand: Trends and determinants," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 55-70, January.
    3. Scott W Hegerty, 2013. "Exchange Market Pressure, Output Drops, and Domestic Credit: Do Emerging Markets Behave Differently?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2583-2595.
    4. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Makarand Parulkar, 2008. "Real Sector Shocks and Monetary Policy Responses in a Financially Vulnerable Emerging Economy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 21-33, May.
    5. Cavoli, Tony, 2009. "Is fear of floating justified?: The East Asia experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16.
    6. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Naveed Aamir, 2012. "Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 299-316, November.
    7. Pontines, Victor & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2011. "Foreign exchange market intervention and reserve accumulation in emerging Asia: Is there evidence of fear of appreciation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 252-255, June.
    8. Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2007. "Managing new-style currency crises: the swan diagram approach revisited," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 583-606.
    9. Cavoli, Tony, 2008. "The exchange rate and optimal monetary policy rules in open and developing economies: Some simple analytics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1011-1021, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Currency crisis; Contractionary devaluation; Speculative attack;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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