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On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Turkey

Author

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    (The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

  • Ferda Halicioglu

    (Istanbul Medeniyet University)

  • Amirhossein Mohammadian

    (The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

Abstract

A few studies in the literature have used linear models to assess the impact of changes in the value of lira on Turkish domestic production. They have found no significant long-run effects. In this paper we separate lira appreciations from depreciations and engage in asymmetry analysis. Since the procedure requires using nonlinear models, we rely upon Shin et al.’s (Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: econometric methods and applications. Springer, New York, pp 281–314, 2014) nonlinear ARDL approach and discover that indeed, the effects of changes in the real effective value of lira have asymmetric effects, both in the short run as well as in the long run. Indeed, in the long run we find that both lira depreciation and lira appreciation to have expansionary effects on domestic production in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ferda Halicioglu & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2018. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 97-112, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:51:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10644-017-9201-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-017-9201-x
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    10. Ho, Sy-Hoa & Nguyen, Trung-Thanh & To-The, Nguyen, 2020. "Asymmetry and Symmetry of real exchange rate effect on the bilateral trade balance between Vietnam and the United States: aggregated and disaggregated levels of investigation," MPRA Paper 98416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nusair, Salah A. & Olson, Dennis, 2021. "Asymmetric oil price and Asian economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
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    13. Ho Hoang Gia Bao & Hoang Phong Le, 2022. "The Roles of Vehicle Currency and Real Effective Exchange Rates in the Trade of Every ASEAN Member With the EU-28," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    14. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance and output growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    15. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan, 2019. "Asymmetric impact of oil prices on stock returns in Shanghai stock exchange: Evidence from asymmetric ARDL model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, June.
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    18. Seemab Gillani & Muhammad Nouman Shafiq & Muhammad Azhar Bhatti & Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad, 2022. "Impact of Economic Growth on Child Malnutrition in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 4(1), pages 149-163, March.
    19. Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy & Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of real effective exchange rate changes on domestic output revisited: evidence from Egypt," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 2-15.
    20. Mukhlis MUKHLIS & Raja MASBAR & Sofyan SYAHNUR & M. Shabri Abd. MAJID, 2020. "Dynamic Causalities Between World Oil Price And Indonesia’S Cocoa Market: Evidence From The 2008 Global Financial Crisis And The 2011 European Debt Crisis," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 217-233, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetry; Nonlinear ARDL; Domestic production; Exchange rate; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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