The effects of exchange-rate volatility on industry trade between the US and Egypt
Recent instability in Egypt has brought attention to the role of risk in this important economy. At the same time, there is room in the ever-expanding literature on the link between exchange-rate volatility and trade flows, particularly for individual commodities, in Egypt. This study examines 36 separate export and import industries vis-à-vis the United States, from 1994 to 2007. An application of cointegration analysis and error-correction modeling finds evidence of long-run relationships for many import and export industries, with exports increasing due to higher risk in a large proportion of cases. Although most industries, particularly in imports, are nevertheless unaffected, our results differ from other studies in the literature. An analysis of our industry-level results shows that chemical imports, and exports of industries with large trade shares, are more likely to increase than are other products or imports. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 48 (2015)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/development/journal/10644/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
- Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
- Ferda Halicioglu, 2007. "The J-curve dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade: a cointegration approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 103-119, May.
- Lahcen Achy & Khalid Sekkat, 2003. "The European Single Currency and MENA's Exports to Europe," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 563-582, November.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2013. "The effects of exchange-rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 70-93.
- Peter B. Clark, 1973. "Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, And The Level Of International Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(3), pages 302-313, September.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hegerty, Scott W., 2008. "Exchange-rate risk and U.S.-Japan trade: Evidence from industry level data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 518-534, December.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Claire Economidou & Gour Gobinda Goswami, 2005. "How sensitive are Britain's inpayments and outpayments to the value of the British pound," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(5), pages 455-467, October.
- Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
- Gianluigi Giorgioni & John Thompson, 2002. "Which volatility? The case of the exports of wheat," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(10), pages 681-684.
- Assem Reda Abu Hatab & Nada Abdelhamed Shoumann & Huo Xuexi, 2012. "Exploring Egypt-China bilateral trade: dynamics and prospects," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 314-326, December.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Hock Tsen Wong, 2013. "Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth in Malaysia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 298-313, May.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Tankui, Altin, 2008. "The black market exchange rate vs. the official rate in testing PPP: Which rate fosters the adjustment process?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 40-43, April.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2012. "Exchange-Rate Volatility And Industry Trade Between The U.S. And Korea," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 1-27, March.
- McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
- Shyh-Wei Chen, 2012. "Untangling the non-linear causal nexus between exchange rates and stock prices: New evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(2), pages 231-259, May.
- Tuck Cheong Tang, 2007. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries: An empirical view from expenditure components," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, November.
- Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhassani & Scott Hegerty, 2012. "Exchange-rate volatility and industry trade between Canada and Mexico," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 389-408, May.
- Hassan Mohammadi, 2008. "Wagner's hypothesis: New evidence from Turkey using the bounds testing approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 94-106, January. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)