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Untangling the non-linear causal nexus between exchange rates and stock prices: New evidence from the OECD countries


  • Shyh-Wei Chen
  • Tzu-Chun Chen


Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in 12 OECD countries. Design/methodology/approach - The authors examine the nexus of stock prices and exchange rates for 12 OECD countries by using the vector error correction model, the bounds testing methodology and linear and non-linear Granger causality methods. Findings - The empirical results substantiate that a long-run level equilibrium relationship among the exchange rates and stock prices exists in only seven out of twelve countries. The results of the linear causality tests indicate that significant short-run and long-run causal relationships exist between the two financial markets. The results of the tests for non-linear Granger causality suggest that unidirectional and bidirectional non-linear causal relationships exist between stock prices and exchange rates among these OECD countries. Originality/value - The findings from this paper suggest the causal relationships between stock prices and exchange rates are not only linear, but also non-linear.

Suggested Citation

  • Shyh-Wei Chen & Tzu-Chun Chen, 2012. "Untangling the non-linear causal nexus between exchange rates and stock prices: New evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(2), pages 231-259, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:39:y:2012:i:2:p:231-259

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    8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Baek, Jungho, 2016. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 15-30.
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    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek & Scott W. Hegerty, 2016. "GARCH-based versus traditional measures of exchange-rate volatility: evidence from Korean industry trade," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 103-136.
    11. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Iqbal Javed & Muzammil Muhammad, 2017. "Pakistan-EU Commodity Trade: Is there Evidence of J-Curve Effect?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-8, June.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ruixin Zhang, 2015. "Koreas Inpayments and Outpayments with the Rest of the World: Is There Room for Currency Manipulation?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 12-32, January.
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Halicioglu, Ferda & Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Mexican bilateral trade and the J-curve: An application of the nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 23-40.
    14. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Industry trade and exchange-rate fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. and Chile," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 619-626.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amr Hosny, 2014. "Price and income elasticities: evidence from commodity trade between the U.S. and Egypt," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 561-574, December.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and Turkish commodity trade with the rest of the world," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 1-21, February.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Hanafiah Harvey, 2017. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Impact on Commodity Trade Flows between Singapore and Malaysia," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 17-33, March.
    18. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Iqbal, Javed & Salam, Muhammad, 2016. "Short run and long run effects of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between Pakistan and Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 131-142.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sahar Bahmani, 2015. "Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the Demand for Money in Iran," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 381-391.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2016. "Asymmetry Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Production: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 181-191, September.
    21. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & HALICIOGLU, Ferda & GHODSI, Seyed Hesam, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on British Bilateral Trade Balances," MPRA Paper 73477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    23. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Exchange rate volatility and Spanish-American commodity trade flows," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 243-260.
    24. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott Hegerty & Amr Hosny, 2015. "The effects of exchange-rate volatility on industry trade between the US and Egypt," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 93-117, May.

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    Exchange rates; Stock prices; Causality; Non-linear;


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