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Untangling the non-linear causal nexus between exchange rates and stock prices: New evidence from the OECD countries

Author

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  • Shyh-Wei Chen
  • Tzu-Chun Chen

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in 12 OECD countries. Design/methodology/approach - The authors examine the nexus of stock prices and exchange rates for 12 OECD countries by using the vector error correction model, the bounds testing methodology and linear and non-linear Granger causality methods. Findings - The empirical results substantiate that a long-run level equilibrium relationship among the exchange rates and stock prices exists in only seven out of twelve countries. The results of the linear causality tests indicate that significant short-run and long-run causal relationships exist between the two financial markets. The results of the tests for non-linear Granger causality suggest that unidirectional and bidirectional non-linear causal relationships exist between stock prices and exchange rates among these OECD countries. Originality/value - The findings from this paper suggest the causal relationships between stock prices and exchange rates are not only linear, but also non-linear.

Suggested Citation

  • Shyh-Wei Chen & Tzu-Chun Chen, 2012. "Untangling the non-linear causal nexus between exchange rates and stock prices: New evidence from the OECD countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(2), pages 231-259, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:39:y:2012:i:2:p:231-259
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 199-211.
    2. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 225-250.
    3. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2005. "A test for multivariate ARCH effects," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 411-417.
    4. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2006. "Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: theory and application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(13), pages 1489-1500.
    5. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2004. "Multivariate tests for autocorrelation in the stable and unstable VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 661-683, July.
    6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Durmaz, Nazif, 2016. "Asymmetric cointegration and the J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Turkey and EU," MPRA Paper 83183, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 May 2016.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott Hegerty & Amr Hosny, 2015. "Exchange-rate volatility and commodity trade between the E.U. and Egypt: evidence from 59 industries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, pages 109-129.
    3. repec:bpj:glecon:v:13:y:2017:i:1:p:8:n:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Baek, Jungho, 2016. "Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 15-30.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2014. "U.S.-Singapore Commodity Trade and the J-Curve," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(10), pages 1473-1484, October.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Iqbal Javed & Muzammil Muhammad, 2017. "Pakistan-EU Commodity Trade: Is there Evidence of J-Curve Effect?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, pages 1-8.
    7. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Industry trade and exchange-rate fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. and Chile," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 619-626.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sahar Bahmani, 2015. "Nonlinear ARDL Approach and the Demand for Money in Iran," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 381-391.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Monetary Uncertainty and Demand for Money in Korea," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(3), pages 317-324, March.
    10. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:149-158 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek & Scott W. Hegerty, 2016. "GARCH-based versus traditional measures of exchange-rate volatility: evidence from Korean industry trade," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, pages 103-136.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ruixin Zhang, 2015. "Koreas Inpayments and Outpayments with the Rest of the World: Is There Room for Currency Manipulation?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 12-32, January.
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Halicioglu, Ferda & Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Mexican bilateral trade and the J-curve: An application of the nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 23-40.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amr Hosny, 2014. "Price and income elasticities: evidence from commodity trade between the U.S. and Egypt," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, pages 561-574.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and Turkish commodity trade with the rest of the world," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, pages 1-21.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Hanafiah Harvey, 2017. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Impact on Commodity Trade Flows between Singapore and Malaysia," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 17-33, March.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nazif Durmaz, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and Turkish commodity trade with the rest of the world," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, pages 1-21.
    18. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Iqbal, Javed & Salam, Muhammad, 2016. "Short run and long run effects of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between Pakistan and Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 131-142.
    19. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & HALICIOGLU, Ferda & GHODSI, Seyed Hesam, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on British Bilateral Trade Balances," MPRA Paper 73477, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Exchange rate volatility and Spanish-American commodity trade flows," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 243-260.
    21. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott Hegerty & Amr Hosny, 2015. "The effects of exchange-rate volatility on industry trade between the US and Egypt," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, pages 93-117.

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    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Stock prices; Causality; Non-linear;

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