IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jodepp/v7y2022i1p96-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Productivity Levels: New Evidence From Nigeria Based on NARDL

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuel Uche
  • Sunday Ikedinobi Nwamiri

Abstract

The dynamic relationship between exchange rate movements (appreciation and depreciation) and macroeconomic fundamentals had preoccupied the minds of researchers across the globe. Consequently, extensive research works have been conducted to unravel the puzzle; however, the findings remain inconclusive. The inconclusiveness of these researches may not be unconnected with the choice of model, the omission of key variables and erroneous assumption of symmetric interrelationships of the variables. To mitigate such error and fill the observed research gaps, this study leveraged on the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag to trace the possible asymmetric pass-through of the exchange rate to output growth in Nigeria. The study made use of monthly time series for the period 2000M1–2018M12 for empirical estimations. The empirical findings reveal an asymmetric pass-through from exchange rate to productivity. Exchange rate depreciation led to output retardation in the short run, but neither appreciation nor depreciation of the exchange affected output in the long run. The findings highlight that exchange rate depreciation of the local currency does not improve the country’s productivity. This reveals a disconnection and misalignment between exchange and productivity in Nigeria. The findings call for proper alignment of the Naira exchange rate with the U.S. dollar for improved productivity in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Uche & Sunday Ikedinobi Nwamiri, 2022. "Dynamic Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Productivity Levels: New Evidence From Nigeria Based on NARDL," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 7(1), pages 96-111, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jodepp:v:7:y:2022:i:1:p:96-111
    DOI: 10.1177/24551333211050704
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/24551333211050704
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/24551333211050704?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Lahiani, Amine & Heller, David, 2016. "Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 54-66.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Amatul Razzaq Chaudhary & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in Pakistan?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(52), pages 5641-5658, June.
    3. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2018. "Oil price shocks and unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 164-173.
    4. Martín Rapetti, 2013. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Some Observations on the Possible Channels," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2013-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    5. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Malaysia-EU trade: evidence from industry data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 339-365, May.
    7. Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro, 1963. "A Note on the Impact of Devaluation and the Redistributive Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(6), pages 577-577.
    8. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 16319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2009.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Malaysia-China commodity trade," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 470-486.
    10. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    12. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Naveed Aamir, 2012. "Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 299-316, November.
    13. Wang, Weiguo & Xue, Jing & Du, Chonghua, 2016. "The Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis in the developed and developing countries revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 33-38.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2018. "Asymmetry Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Production in Emerging Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1442-1459, May.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2016. "Asymmetry Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Production: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 181-191, September.
    16. Martins Iyoboyi & Olarinde Muftau, 2014. "Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, December.
    17. Manalo, Josef & Perera, Dilhan & Rees, Daniel M., 2015. "Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 53-62.
    18. Matthieu Bussiere, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 731-758, October.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Abera Gelan, 2013. "Are Devaluations Contractionary in Africa?," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 1-14, March.
    20. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 279-296.
    21. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    22. Pablo Mejia-Reyes & Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2010. "Modelling real exchange rate effects on output performance in Latin America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(19), pages 2491-2503.
    23. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Khumalo, Zitsile Zamantungwa & Choga, Ireen, 2020. "Empirical test of the Balassa-Samuelson effect in selected African countries," MPRA Paper 101495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2017. "Asymmetry effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Japan," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 774-790, November.
    25. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2019. "Malaysia-Japan Commodity Trade and Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 14(2), pages 220-263, June.
    26. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of Singapore," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-11, December.
    27. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2007. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary? Empirical evidence from Fiji," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2589-2598.
    28. Muhammad Nawaz, 2012. "The Impact of Exchange Rate on Output Level: Bounds Testing Approach for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 419-434.
    29. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ferda Halicioglu & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2018. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 97-112, May.
    30. repec:lje:journl:v:22:y:2017:i:sp:p:73-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. repec:idn:journl:v:22:y:2019:i:3b:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy & Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of real effective exchange rate changes on domestic output revisited: evidence from Egypt," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 2-15.
    2. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ardakani, Amid, 2020. "Does GINI respond to income volatility in an asymmetric manner? Evidence from 41 countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    3. M Bahmani-Oskooee & A Mohammadian, 2018. "On the Relation between Domestic Output and Exchange Rates in 68 Countries: An Asymmetry Analysis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 23(2), pages 1-29, September.
    4. Misbah Nosheen & Beenish Chohan & Javed Iqbal & Mark Wohar, 2023. "Asymmetric response of domestic production to exchange rate changes: Evidence from southeast Asian countries," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(2), pages 54-75, November.
    5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2022. "Who Has Benefitted from Malaysia-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement? An Industry Level Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 47(2), pages 20-38, June.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Augustine C. Arize, 2020. "Asymmetric response of domestic production to exchange rate changes: evidence from Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Nathan Audu & Titus Obiezue, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Trade in Services Nexus in Nigeria: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 8(1), pages 79-96, January.
    8. Brun,Martin & Gambetta,Juan Pedro & Varela,Gonzalo J., 2020. "Slow Rockets and Fast Feathers or the Link between Exchange Rates and Exports : A Case Study for Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9353, The World Bank.
    9. Bilgin, Cevat, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: A Sectoral Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 101316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ferda Halicioglu & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2018. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 97-112, May.
    11. Yixiao Jiang & George K. Zestos & Zachary Timmerman, 2020. "A Vector Error Correction Model for Japanese Real Exports," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(3), pages 297-311, September.
    12. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Real Exchange Rate and the Dynamics of Services Trade Balance in the UK: A Linear and Non-linear ARDL Analysis," MPRA Paper 106703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2018. "Asymmetry Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Production in Emerging Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(6), pages 1442-1459, May.
    14. Mesagan, Ekundayo Peter & Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on trade balance and output growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    15. Thorbecke, Willem & Sengonul, Ahmet, 2023. "The impact of exchange rates on Turkish imports and exports," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 231-249.
    16. Md. Golam Kibria & Ismay Jahan & Jannatul Mawa, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of financial development and energy consumption on environmental degradation in South Asia? New evidence from non-linear ARDL analysis," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1-18, April.
    17. Ho Hoang Gia Bao & Hoang Phong Le, 2022. "The Roles of Vehicle Currency and Real Effective Exchange Rates in the Trade of Every ASEAN Member With the EU-28," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    18. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Is There a J-Curve Effect in the Services Trade in Canada? A Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 106704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Nouira, Ridha, 2021. "U.S.-German commodity trade and the J-curve: New evidence from asymmetry analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Ali Nasir, 2020. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from industry trade between U.S. and U.K," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(25), pages 2679-2693, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jodepp:v:7:y:2022:i:1:p:96-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.