IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/ecopln/v56y2023i4d10.1007_s10644-023-09535-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effectiveness of ultra-loose monetary policy in a high inflation economy: a time-varying causality analysis for Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Mehmet Ulug

    (University of Milan)

  • Sayım Işık

    (Akdeniz University)

  • Mehmet Mert

    (Akdeniz University)

Abstract

The highest rate of inflation was observed as countries faced increasing prices for food and energy, primarily due to supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. In such challenging times, interest rate-based monetary policy remains an important issue for fighting inflation. From a policy perspective, central banks all over the globe tighten their monetary policy stance to cool inflation. Arguably, Turkey opted for an ultra-lose monetary policy via very low interest rates in response to high inflation. Drawing on the Turkish experience, we tackle the evolution of the Turkish central bank’s operations in the face of high inflation, providing further details on how ultra-loose monetary policy implementation can be extremely challenging in a highly inflationary economy. We extend the existing body of literature by employing the time-varying Granger causality model proposed by Shi et al. (J Time Ser Anal 39:966–987,2018; J Financ Econom 18:158–180, 2020). Using monthly data (2005:01 to 2022:01), we examine the links between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates to detect possible changes across various time horizons. The major finding of this study explores the significant episodes of causality by detecting the origination date of causality starting from 2018 toward 2021. This finding confirms that August 2018 and its repercussions on the sharp currency depreciation and high Turkish inflation are pivotal moments to understand the nature of Turkey’s economic growth model and the impact of monetary policy in the ongoing economic crisis that hit Turkey harder. Our results reveal that a poorly managed country’s interest rate decisions can be disastrous for the exchange rate movements and inflation dynamics, whereas the conclusion is that there are limits to what central banks can do.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Ulug & Sayım Işık & Mehmet Mert, 2023. "The effectiveness of ultra-loose monetary policy in a high inflation economy: a time-varying causality analysis for Turkey," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2855-2887, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:56:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-023-09535-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-023-09535-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10644-023-09535-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10644-023-09535-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giuseppe Fontana, 2007. "Why money matters: Wicksell, Keynes, and the new consensus view on monetary policy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 43-60.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Annina Kaltenbrunner & Juan Pablo Painceira, 2017. "The Impossible Trinity: Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Management and Open Capital Accounts in Emerging Economies," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 48(3), pages 452-480, May.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Noy, Ilan, 2011. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 712-724, May.
    5. Kohler, Karsten, 2019. "Exchange rate dynamics, balance sheet effects, and capital flows. A Minskyan model of emerging market boom-bust cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 270-283.
    6. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Umit Koc & Fethi Ogunc & Mustafa Utku Ozmen, 2021. "The Role of Expectations in the Inflation Process in Turkey: Have the Dynamics Changed Recently?," Working Papers 2102, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. Woodford, Michael & WALSH, CARL E., 2005. "Interest And Prices: Foundations Of A Theory Of Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 462-468, June.
    10. Cucciniello, Maria Chiara & Deleidi, Matteo & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The cost channel of monetary policy: The case of the United States in the period 1959–2018," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-433.
    11. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    12. Özgür Orhangazi & A. Erinç Yeldan, 2021. "The Re‐making of the Turkish Crisis," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 52(3), pages 460-503, May.
    13. Mahir Binici & Hakan Kara & Pınar Özlü, 2019. "Monetary transmission with multiple policy rates: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(17), pages 1869-1893, April.
    14. Zulfiqar Hyder & Sardar Shah, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 05, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    15. Zeynep Kantur & Gülserim Özcan, 2022. "Dissecting Turkish inflation: theory, fact, and illusion," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1543-1553, August.
    16. Tayfur Bayat & Selim Kayhan & İzzet Taşar, 2018. "Re-Visiting Fisher Effect for Fragile Five Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 7(2), pages 203-218.
    17. Ahmed, Rashad & Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2021. "Inflation and Exchange Rate Targeting Challenges Under Fiscal Dominance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Shuping Shi & Stan Hurn & Peter C B Phillips, 2020. "Causal Change Detection in Possibly Integrated Systems: Revisiting the Money–Income Relationship [Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the United States]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 18(1), pages 158-180.
    19. Andrew Hallett & Jan Libich, 2012. "Explicit inflation targets and central bank independence: friends or foes?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 271-297, November.
    20. Shuping Shi & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stan Hurn, 2018. "Change Detection and the Causal Impact of the Yield Curve," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 966-987, November.
    21. Cristina Arellano & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2018. "Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    22. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya & Savaş Kaptan & Metehan Cömert, 2020. "Interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates in fragile EMEs: A fresh look at the long-run interrelationships," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 289-318, April.
    23. A. Hakan Kara, 2008. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
    24. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2022. "Drivers of Turkish inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 315-323.
    25. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile.
    26. Peter Bofinger & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2003. "Managed Floating as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 81-109, June.
    27. Cristina Arellano & Gabriel Mihalache & Yan Bai, 2018. "Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    28. Servaas Storm, 2022. "Inflation in the Time of Corona and War," Working Papers Series inetwp185, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    29. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
    30. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
    31. Ahmet Benlialper & Hasan Cömert, 2016. "Implicit asymmetric exchange rate peg under inflation targeting regimes: the case of Turkey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 40(6), pages 1553-1580.
    32. Shahzad, Umer & Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Doğan, Buhari & Magazzino, Cosimo, 2022. "Time-frequency analysis between Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) and WTI crude oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    33. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.
    34. Thoma, Mark A., 1994. "Subsample instability and asymmetries in money-income causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 279-306.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mustafa Kocoglu & Phouphet Kyophilavong & Ashar Awan & So Young Lim, 2023. "Time-varying causality between oil price and exchange rate in five ASEAN economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1007-1031, April.
    2. Madaleno, Mara & Dogan, Eyup & Taskin, Dilvin, 2022. "A step forward on sustainability: The nexus of environmental responsibility, green technology, clean energy and green finance," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Hicham Ayad & Ousama Ben-Salha & Miloud Ouafi, 2023. "Do oil prices predict the exchange rate in Algeria? Time, frequency, and time‐varying Granger causality analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3545-3566, October.
    4. Seyi Saint Akadiri & Andrew Adewale Alola & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2022. "Trilemma of pandemic-related health emergency, economic policy uncertainty and partisan conflict in the United States: A time-varying analysis evidence," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(4), pages 771-784, October.
    5. Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Denaux, Zulal & Topcu, Mert, 2021. "Time-varying causality between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and real output: Sectoral evidence from the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Chao Liang & Yanran Hong & Luu Duc Toan Huynh & Feng Ma, 2023. "Asymmetric dynamic risk transmission between financial stress and monetary policy uncertainty: thinking in the post-covid-19 world," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1543-1567, May.
    7. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Jingyao & He, Feng & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on traditional energy and green markets: Evidence from time-varying granger tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    8. İbrahim Özmen & Şerife Özşahin, 2023. "Effects of global energy and price fluctuations on Turkey's inflation: new evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2695-2728, August.
    9. Hong, Yanran & Wang, Lu & Ye, Xiaoqing & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Dynamic asymmetric impact of equity market uncertainty on energy markets: A time-varying causality analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 535-546.
    10. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "Relationship between green bonds and financial and environmental variables: A novel time-varying causality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    11. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jin Zhang and David C. Broadstock, 2016. "The Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth for China in a Time-varying Framework," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(China Spe).
    13. Shu-Ping Shi & Stan Hurn & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2016. "Causal Change Detection in Possibly Integrated Systems: Revisiting the Money-Income Relationship," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2059, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    14. Fromentin, Vincent, 2022. "Time-varying causality between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Connection or disconnection?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    15. Mehmet Balcilar & Gizem Uzuner & Festus Victor Bekun & Mark E. Wohar, 2023. "Housing price uncertainty and housing prices in the UK in a time-varying environment," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 523-549, May.
    16. Xunfa Lu & Zhitao Ye & Kin Keung Lai & Hairong Cui & Xiao Lin, 2022. "Time-Varying Causalities in Prices and Volatilities between the Cross-Listed Stocks in Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, February.
    17. Umer Shahzad & Muhammad Ramzan & Muhammad Ibrahim Shah & Buhari DoÄŸan & Ahdi Noomen Ajmi, 2022. "Analyzing the Nexus Between Geopolitical Risk, Policy Uncertainty, and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence From the United States," Evaluation Review, , vol. 46(3), pages 266-295, June.
    18. Clements, Adam & Hurn, Stan & Shi, Shuping, 2017. "An empirical investigation of herding in the U.S. stock market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 184-192.
    19. Metawa, Noura & Dogan, Eyup & Taskin, Dilvin, 2022. "Analyzing the nexus of green economy, clean and financial technology," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 385-396.
    20. Adeosun, Opeoluwa Adeniyi & Tabash, Mosab I. & Anagreh, Suhaib, 2022. "Oil price and economic performance: Additional evidence from advanced economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Interest rates; Exchange rates; Inflation; Currency crisis; Time-varying causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:56:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-023-09535-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.