Monetary Policy Transmission Under Global Versus Local Geopolitical Risk: Exploring Time-Varying Granger Causality, Frequency Domain, and Nonlinear Territory in Tunisia

Using time-varying Granger causality, Neural Networks Nonlinear VAR, and Wavelet Coherence analysis, we evidence the unstable effect of the money market rate on industrial production and consumer price index in Tunisia. The effect is asymmetric and depends on geopolitical risk (low versus high). We show that global geopolitical risk has both detriments and benefits sides—it is a threat and an opportunity for monetary policy transmission mechanisms. Interacted local projections (LPs) reveal short–medium-term volatility or dampening effects, suggesting that geopolitical uncertainty might weaken the immediate impact of monetary policy on output and prices. In uncertain environments (e.g., high geopolitical risk), economic agents—households and businesses—may adopt a wait-and-see approach. They delay consumption and investment decisions, which could initially mute the impact of monetary policy. Agents may delay their responses until they gain more information about geopolitical developments. Once clarity emerges, they may adjust their behavior, aligning with the long-run effects observed in the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Furthermore, we identify an exacerbating investor sentiment following tightening monetary policy, during global and local geopolitical episodes. The impact is even more pronounced under conditions of high domestic weakness. Evidence is extracted through a novel composite index that we construct using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Our results have implications for the Central Bank’s monetary policy conduct and communication practices.