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Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations

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Abstract

This paper studies the general equilibrium effects of time-varying geopolitical risk in the oil market by simultaneously modeling downside risk from disasters, oil storage and the endogenous determination of oil price and macroeconomic uncertainty in the global economy. Notwithstanding the attention geopolitical events in oil markets have attracted, we find that geopolitical oil price risk is not a major driver of global macroeconomic fluctuations. Even when allowing for the possibility of an unprecedented 20 percent drop in global oil production, it takes a large increase in the probability of such a disaster to cause a sizable recessionary impact.

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  • Lutz Kilian & Michael D. Plante & Alexander W. Richter, 2024. "Geopolitical Oil Price Risk and Economic Fluctuations," Working Papers 2403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 12 Nov 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:98321
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2403r1
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    1. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2021. "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 369-410, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Le Xu & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping," CESifo Working Paper Series 11684, CESifo.
    2. Emna Trabelsi, 2025. "Monetary Policy Transmission Under Global Versus Local Geopolitical Risk: Exploring Time-Varying Granger Causality, Frequency Domain, and Nonlinear Territory in Tunisia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-68, June.
    3. Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2025. "Does uncertainty amplify the inflation pass-through of gasoline price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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