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Geopolitical Risk Perceptions

Author

Listed:
  • Bondarenko, Yevheniia
  • Lewis, Vivien
  • Rottner, Matthias
  • Schüler, Yves

Abstract

Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that local geopolitical risk shocks have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially

Suggested Citation

  • Bondarenko, Yevheniia & Lewis, Vivien & Rottner, Matthias & Schüler, Yves, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk Perceptions," CEPR Discussion Papers 18123, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18123
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    2. Khalil, Makram & Osten, David & Strobel, Felix, 2025. "Trade dynamics under geopolitical risk," Discussion Papers 03/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2025. "US sectors and geopolitical risk: The investor's perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Ozili, Peterson K, 2025. "Geopolitical shocks, capital outflows, financial inclusion and digital financial inclusion," MPRA Paper 125567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bondarenko, Yevheniia & Kang, Nayeon & Lewis, Vivien & Rottner, Matthias & Schüler, Yves, 2026. "Geopolitical Risk in the Euro Area: Measurement and Transmission," CEPR Discussion Papers 21409, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    6. Francesco Zanetti & Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos, 2026. "The Effects of Geopolitical Oil Price Shocks," CIGS Working Paper Series 26-005E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    7. Ioannou, Demosthenes & Prioriello, Raffaele & Durrani, Agha, 2026. "Measuring geoeconomic tension: a large-language-model approach for the euro area," Working Paper Series 3250, European Central Bank.
    8. Ambrocio, Gene & Fungáčová, Zuzana & Heikkinen, Joni & Kerola, Eeva & Korhonen, Iikka & Norring, Anni, 2025. "Northern insights: Geopolitical risk from Finnish news media," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2025, Bank of Finland.
    9. Matthijs Leusen & Harry Garretsen & Francesco Giumelli & Tristan Kohl, 2026. "The Stock Market Effects of the 2022 Russia Sanctions: Evidence from the US and the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 12650, CESifo.
    10. Chengjiu Sun & Shanshan Wang, 2026. "The Impact of US Sanctions on Food Security: Evidence from a Global Panel," Working Papers 202612, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    11. Miguel Jiménez & David Sarasa Flores & Alfonso Ugarte, 2026. "Global | Evaluando el Riesgo Geopolítico Estructural [Global | Assessing Structural Geopolitical Risk]," Working Papers 26/08, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    12. Ito, Asei & Lim, Jaehwan & Zhang, Hongyong, 2025. "Measuring political leader's geopolitical risk perceptions," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    13. Dai, Shangze & Guan, Zhengfei & Ji, James, 2026. "Food Security Concerns under Geopolitical Risk: Land Expansion, Trade Distortions, and Environmental Costs," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404631, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "Geopolitical Turning Points and Oil Price Responses: An IV-LP Approach," MPRA Paper 125586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Xiong, Mengxu & Kong, Dongmin, 2026. "Geopolitical risks and firm export product quality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    16. Emna Trabelsi, 2025. "Monetary Policy Transmission Under Global Versus Local Geopolitical Risk: Exploring Time-Varying Granger Causality, Frequency Domain, and Nonlinear Territory in Tunisia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-68, June.
    17. Xiong, Ding & Sun, Yao, 2025. "The rising cost of turmoil: geopolitical crises and supply chain risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    18. BBVA Research, 2026. "Global | Geopolítica, geoeconomía y riesgo soberano: diferentes shocks, diferentes canales [Global | Geopolitics, geoeconomics and sovereign risk: different shocks,different channels]," Working Papers 26/04, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    19. Metiu, Norbert & Völpel, Martin, 2026. "Geopolitical hybrid threats," Discussion Papers 11/2026, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. BBVA Research & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo, 2025. "Global | Geopolítica, geoeconomía y riesgo: un enfoque basado en aprendizaje automático [Global | Geopolitics, geoeconomics and risk: a machine learning approach]," Working Papers 25/14, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    21. Frangiamore, Francesco & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2026. "Geopolitical risk and sovereign stress in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 127823, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Vivien Lewis & Sirikorn Puangjit, 2026. "A Simple Model of Geopolitical Risk and Sanctions," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 73(3), July.
    23. Thi Thanh Ha DOAN & Asei ITO & Changyuan LUO & Hongyong ZHANG, 2025. "Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Diversification: Evidence from Japanese multinational firms," Discussion papers 25112, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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