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Geopolitical Risk Perceptions

Author

Listed:
  • Bondarenko, Yevheniia
  • Lewis, Vivien
  • Rottner, Matthias
  • Schüler, Yves

Abstract

Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that local geopolitical risk shocks have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially

Suggested Citation

  • Bondarenko, Yevheniia & Lewis, Vivien & Rottner, Matthias & Schüler, Yves, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk Perceptions," CEPR Discussion Papers 18123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18123
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Khalil, Makram & Osten, David & Strobel, Felix, 2025. "Trade dynamics under geopolitical risk," Discussion Papers 03/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2025. "US sectors and geopolitical risk: The investor's perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2025. "Geopolitical Turning Points and Oil Price Responses: An IV-LP Approach," MPRA Paper 125586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Emna Trabelsi, 2025. "Monetary Policy Transmission Under Global Versus Local Geopolitical Risk: Exploring Time-Varying Granger Causality, Frequency Domain, and Nonlinear Territory in Tunisia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-68, June.
    6. Ozili, Peterson K, 2025. "Geopolitical shocks, capital outflows, financial inclusion and digital financial inclusion," MPRA Paper 125567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. BBVA Research & Alvaro Ortiz & Tomasa Rodrigo, 2025. "Global | Geopolítica, geoeconomía y riesgo: un enfoque basado en aprendizaje automático [Global | Geopolitics, geoeconomics and risk: a machine learning approach]," Working Papers 25/14, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    8. Lewis, Vivien & Puangjit, Sirikorn, 2025. "A simple model of geopolitical risk and sanctions," Discussion Papers 32/2025, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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