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Geopolitical Risk Perceptions

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Listed:
  • Lewis, Vivien
  • Bondarenko, Yevheniia
  • Rottner, Matthias
  • Schüler, Yves

Abstract

Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that local geopolitical risk shocks have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, Vivien & Bondarenko, Yevheniia & Rottner, Matthias & Schüler, Yves, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk Perceptions," CEPR Discussion Papers 18123, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18123
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