Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Diversification: Evidence from Japanese multinational firms

Utilizing comprehensive parent-affiliate matched data on Japanese multinational firms, this study investigates how geopolitical risks affect global supply chain configurations, with a focus on East and Southeast Asia during the period 2009–2022. We construct firm-level exposure to geopolitical risk in China using data on trade and foreign direct investment. First, Japanese multinational firms tend to respond to geopolitical shocks by diversifying their supply chains away from China and toward the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) economies. This response is particularly pronounced among firms that depend heavily on imported inputs from China or maintain substantial production operations there. Second, such diversification typically does not entail drastic within-firm relocation (“friend-shoring”) of supply chains. Third, Japanese multinational firms tend to increase their capital investment in Japan while maintaining their existing production bases in China. These results suggest that firms favor a strategy of supply chain diversification—rather than outright relocation / reshoring or abrupt decoupling—as a means of mitigating geopolitical risks.