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Geopolitical Risk and Corporate Behaviors: Propagation of shocks through global operations

Author

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  • Huu Nhan DUONG
  • Jota ISHIKAWA
  • Katsumasa NISHIDE
  • S. Ghon RHEE

Abstract

This study examines the impact of geopolitical risk (hereafter GPR) on the behavior of multinational manufacturing firms from Japan. We construct firm-level exposures to GPR indices using data on foreign direct investment and international trade. We find that only large firms respond to GPR, whereas small firms exhibit no significant reaction. Furthermore, the effect of GPR on accounting-based decisions, such as cash holdings and investment, varies depending on firms’ modes of internationalization. In particular, the results indicate that firms exposed to GPR through FDI reduce asset-side variables, such as cash holdings and capital expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Huu Nhan DUONG & Jota ISHIKAWA & Katsumasa NISHIDE & S. Ghon RHEE, 2025. "Geopolitical Risk and Corporate Behaviors: Propagation of shocks through global operations," Discussion papers 25029, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:25029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas W. Bates & Kathleen M. Kahle & René M. Stulz, 2009. "Why Do U.S. Firms Hold So Much More Cash than They Used To?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 1985-2021, October.
    2. Mitsuyo Ando & Kazunobu Hayakawa & Fukunari Kimura, 2024. "Supply Chain Decoupling: Geopolitical Debates and Economic Dynamism in East Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 62-79, January.
    3. Jory, Surendranath R. & Khieu, Hinh D. & Ngo, Thanh N. & Phan, Hieu V., 2020. "The influence of economic policy uncertainty on corporate trade credit and firm value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 87-117.
    5. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Gary Pisano & Pian Shu, 2020. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from US Patents," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 357-374, September.
    6. Jong‐Eun Lee, 2019. "The world stock markets under geopolitical risks: Dependence structure," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(6), pages 1898-1930, June.
    7. Kazuo Ogawa & Kazuyuki Suzuki, 2000. "Uncertainty and Investment: Some Evidence from the Panel Data of Japanese Manufacturing Firms," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 170-192, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thi Thanh Ha DOAN & Asei ITO & Changyuan LUO & Hongyong ZHANG, 2025. "Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Diversification: Evidence from Japanese multinational firms," Discussion papers 25112, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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