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The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Fajgelbaum

    (Princeton University)

  • Pinelopi K. Goldberg

    (Yale University)

  • Patrick Kennedy

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Amit Khandelwal

    (Columbia GSB)

  • Daria Taglioni

    (World Bank)

Abstract

We study global trade responses to the US-China trade war. We estimate the tariff impacts on product-level exports to the US, China, and rest of world. On average, countries decreased exports to China and increased exports to the US and rest of world. Most countries export products that complement the US and substitute China, and a subset operate along downward-sloping supplies. Heterogeneity in responses, rather than specialization, drives export variation across countries. Surprisingly, global trade increased in the products targeted by tariffs. Thus, despite ending the trend towards tariff reductions, the trade war did not halt global trade growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Patrick Kennedy & Amit Khandelwal & Daria Taglioni, 2021. "The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations," Working Papers 2021-80, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:econom:2021-80
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Eichengreen, Barry, 2023. "Globalization: Uncoupled or unhinged?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 685-692.
    3. Hâle Utar & Alfonso Cebreros Zurita & Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz & Hale Utar, 2023. "The US-China Trade War and the Relocation of Global Value Chains to Mexico," CESifo Working Paper Series 10638, CESifo.
    4. Wei, Hao & Tu, Yue & Zhou, Peng, 2023. "Technical barriers to trade and export performance: Comparing exiting and staying firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Lastauskas, Povilas & Proškutė, Aurelija & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2023. "How do firms adjust when trade stops?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 287-307.
    6. Berend Diekmann & Michael Kilpper, 2022. "Zollkrieg und Handelsabkommen zwischen den USA und China [Four Years of Tariff War and Two Years of Phase-One Agreement Between the U. S. and China — Has it Worked for the U. S.?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(3), pages 204-209, March.
    7. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2021. "Import liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1779, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2024. "The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation," Working Papers 1445, Barcelona School of Economics.
    9. Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "Port congestion, container shortages, and U.S. foreign trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    10. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2024. "The effects of climate change on labor and capital reallocation," Economics Working Papers 1887, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Blanga-Gubbay, Michael & Rubínová, Stela, 2023. "Is the global economy fragmenting?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2023-10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    12. Afontsev, S., 2022. "Political paradoxes of economic sanctions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 193-198.
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    14. Fessina, Massimiliano & Zaccaria, Andrea & Cimini, Giulio & Squartini, Tiziano, 2024. "Pattern-detection in the global automotive industry: A manufacturer-supplier-product network analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflicts; Globalization; United States; China; Trade disputes; Exports; International relations; Tariffs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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