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Escaping the Trade War: Finance and Relational Supply Chains in the Adjustment to Trade Policy Shocks

In: International Fragmentation, Supply Chains, and Financial Frictions

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe Benguria
  • Felipe Saffie

Abstract

The impact of the 2018–2019 trade war on total US exports depends on the direct effect of foreign retaliatory tariffs as well as on the ability of US exporters to reorganize global supply chains and redirect exports to other markets, away from retaliating countries. We document that the sharp decline in US exports to retaliating countries was compensated by a gradual increase in exports to other markets. We then develop a model of export reallocation to study the role of financial constraints and the persistence or stickiness of trade relationships as underlying mechanisms shaping both the direct impact of retaliatory tariffs and the extent of the reallocation toward alternative markets. In line with the predictions of the model, we find that in industries with high leverage, Chinese retaliatory tariffs led to a stronger decline in US exports to China but a larger increase in exports to the rest of the world. We find a similar pattern among industries with less persistent trade relationships. Finally, we document that other potential mechanisms do not appear to be economically and/or statistically significant in shaping the response to tariffs.
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Suggested Citation

  • Felipe Benguria & Felipe Saffie, 2023. "Escaping the Trade War: Finance and Relational Supply Chains in the Adjustment to Trade Policy Shocks," NBER Chapters, in: International Fragmentation, Supply Chains, and Financial Frictions, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:15279
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    Cited by:

    1. Tiago Cavalcanti & Pedro Molina Ogeda & Emanuel Ornelas, 2025. "The US-China trade war creates jobs (elsewhere)," CEP Discussion Papers dp2098, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Loo Yew Liang & Xu Yutao, 2025. "The Cultural Challenge of Chinese International Companies Exporting to the Malaysian Market Under the Belt and Road Initiative," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(10), pages 7075-7089, October.
    3. Gustavo de Souza & Haishi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang, 2025. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Supply Chain Disruptions: Firm-Level Evidence from "Liberation Day"," CESifo Working Paper Series 12285, CESifo.
    4. Liu, Qing & Jia, Deting & Liu, Huiling & Wang, Kai, 2025. "Good for bad: The heterogeneous effects of export controls on firms' ESG," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Laura Alfaro & Mariya Brussevich & Camelia Minoiu & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2025. "Bank Financing of Global Supply Chains," NBER Working Papers 33754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Gopinath, Gita & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Topalova, Petia, 2025. "Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Nicolás de Roux & Luis R. Martínez & Camilo Tovar & Jorge Tovar, 2025. "Trade Collapse and the Performance of Exporting Firms," Documentos CEDE 2025-34, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Matteo Crosignani & Lina Han & Marco Macchiavelli, 2025. "Navigating Geoeconomic Risk: Evidence from U.S. Mutual Funds," Staff Reports 1172, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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