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Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war

Author

Listed:
  • Karin Mayr-Dorn
  • Gaia Narciso
  • Duc Anh Dang
  • Hien Phan

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of the U.S.-China trade war on trade diversion and the labor market in a third country, Vietnam. We exploit variation in Vietnamese exports to the U.S. across industries and districts based on the extent of the U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese imports and provide evidence of a positive effect on labor market outcomes in Vietnam. Vietnamese workers and districts that are more exposed to the trade war display higher employment, working hours, and wages as a result. Our findings reveal that bilateral trade policy can have substantial offsetting effects on trade flows and labor markets in third countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Karin Mayr-Dorn & Gaia Narciso & Duc Anh Dang & Hien Phan, 2023. "Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war," Economics working papers 2023-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    • Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2023-04
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    Cited by:

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    2. Garred, Jason & Yuan, Song, 2025. "Relocation from China (with Chinese characteristics)," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    3. Haishi Li & Zhi Li & Ziho Park & Yulin Wang & Jing Wu, 2024. "To Comply or Not to Comply: Understanding Neutral Country Supply Chain Responses to Russian Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 11110, CESifo.
    4. Shota Miki & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2024. "On the Restructuring of Global Semiconductor Supply Chains," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    5. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Sudsawasd, Sasatra, 2025. "Impacts of trade diversion from China in the United States market on wages in a third country: Evidence from Thailand," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    6. Tafese, Tevin & Lay, Jann & Tran, Van, 2025. "From fields to factories: Special economic zones, foreign direct investment, and labour markets in Vietnam," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. Conteduca, Francesco Paolo & Errico, Marco & Leone, Fabrizio & Panon, Ludovic & Romanini, Giacomo, 2026. "The Impact of Trade Wars on Firms in Third Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 21421, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    8. Pagarani, Vicky, 2026. "Trade Volume and Compositional Shifts in the Vietnam-USA Telecommunications Corridor: Volume Null, Density Anomaly (2023-2025)," MPRA Paper 128483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Zou, Tao & Gong, Yundan, 2026. "Just passing through? The US-China trade war and reconfiguration of global value chains through Vietnam," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 139083, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos & Vazquez, Emmanuel & Winkler, Hernan, 2026. "Trade Diversion and Jobs : Evidence from Mexican Municipalities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11419, The World Bank.
    11. Nuwat Nookhwun & Jettawat Pattararangrong & Kittichai Saelee & Wisarut Suwanprasert, 2026. "Trade Diversion, Supply-Chain Reconfiguration, and Rerouting During the U.S.–China Trade War," PIER Discussion Papers 258, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Cavalcanti, Tiago & Ogeda, Pedro & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2026. "The US-China trade war creates jobs (elsewhere)," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    13. Arias, Omar & Cesar, Andres & Fukuzawa, Daisuke & Le, Duong, 2026. "Industrial Automation and Jobs in an Emerging Economy: Evidence from Viet Nam," IZA Discussion Papers 18845, IZA Network @ LISER.
    14. Kitayaporn,Varan & Coxhead,Ian, 2024. "China's New Growth Strategy: Implications for Middle-Income Economies," IDE Discussion Papers 940, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

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    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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