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Trade Volume and Compositional Shifts in the Vietnam-USA Telecommunications Corridor: Volume Null, Density Anomaly (2023-2025)

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  • Pagarani, Vicky

Abstract

The analysis carried out in this research paper attempts to understand the trade dynamics in the Vietnam-USA telecommunications corridor from 2023 to 2025 under the recent tariff regime. The macroeconomic backdrop is characterized primarily by the historic decoupling, with the share of US imports from China fell to 9% by July 2025 (Alfaro and Chor 2025). In a Two-Way Fixed Effects DiD design (N=4,464; T=36; G=124), we find a rather unusual nominal routing hardware (HS 851762) surge of 978.03M dollars. Further, the application of Rambachan & Roth (2023) Honest Bounds resulted in this aggregate dollar figure being statistically subsumed by compounding pre-trend volatility. Cutting off this financial noise, a strong statistically significant underlying signal becomes visible: a negative density anomaly (Honest Bounds [-2151, -607] Kg/M-USD). The effect of this is that post-policy imports are structurally lightened in relation to their reported financial worth. The SCM asserts that semiconductor fabrication (HS 8542) is not responsive (gap=-$14.23M, Abadie p=0.67). To conclude, the reaction is primarily not volume dumping but a compositional change, hardware substitution and a complicated supply-chain reallocation in response to the new rules of origin. For the identification of the exact firm-level mechanisms, future micro-data research is needed.

Suggested Citation

  • Pagarani, Vicky, 2026. "Trade Volume and Compositional Shifts in the Vietnam-USA Telecommunications Corridor: Volume Null, Density Anomaly (2023-2025)," MPRA Paper 128483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:128483
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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