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Trade Diversion and Trade Deficits: The Case of the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement

In: Globalization and Welfare Impacts of International Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Katheryn Russ
  • Deborah Swenson

Abstract

We study whether tariff preferences conferred on South Korean goods through the implementation of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) drew U.S. import demand away from other U.S. trading partners through the phenomenon known as trade diversion. In the two years following the implementation of KORUS, trade diversion was particularly strong for U.S. imports of consumption goods and for trade partners who already had free trade agreements with the U.S. Our estimates of trade diversion sum to $13.1 billion in 2013 and $13.8 billion in 2014. Notably, these estimates of trade diversion are roughly of the same magnitude as the increase in the U.S. bilateral goods trade deficit with South Korea. Thus, while increased U.S. imports from South Korea may have increased the U.S.-South Korea bilateral trade deficit, the fact that KORUS diverted U.S. import demand away from other trading partners implies new U.S. imports from Korea stimulated by the KORUS did not expand the overall U.S. trade deficit.
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Suggested Citation

  • Katheryn Russ & Deborah Swenson, 2018. "Trade Diversion and Trade Deficits: The Case of the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Welfare Impacts of International Trade, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14334
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    2. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Nadia Doytch & Christophe Schinckus & Thanh Dinh Su, 2024. "Mobile and internet usage, institutions and the trade balance: Evidence from African countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2230-2264, April.
    3. Abdulkareem Alhassan & Cem Payaslioğlu, 2024. "Trade Diversion and Creation Effect of Free Trade Agreements in ASEAN: Do Institutions Matter?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 917-935, March.
    4. Chun, Hyunbae & Hur, Jung & Son, Nyeong Seon, 2021. "Global value chains and servicification of manufacturing: Evidence from firm-level data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Hyeongwoo Kim & Madeline H. Kim & Divya Sadana & Jie Zhang, 2022. "Was the KORUS FTA a Horrible Deal?," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2022-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    6. Loitongbam Bishwanjit Singh, 2021. "Impact of India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: An Assessment from the Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(4), pages 400-414, November.
    7. Lee, Dongyeol, 2021. "Propagation of economic shocks through vertical and trade linkages in Korea: An empirical analysis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Karin Mayr-Dorn & Gaia Narciso & Duc Anh Dang & Hien Phan, 2023. "Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war," Trinity Economics Papers tep0923, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Simone Cigna & Philipp Meinen & Patrick Schulte & Nils Steinhoff, 2022. "The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(1), pages 162-173, January.
    10. Yi, Chae-Deug, 2020. "The computable general equilibrium analysis of the reduction in tariffs and non-tariff measures within the Korea-Japan-European Union free trade agreement," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    11. Chae‐Deug Yi, 2022. "Economic impacts of UK's free trade agreements with Korea, Japan, and EU as a breakthrough of Brexit," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(5), pages 541-564, September.
    12. Yoon Heo & Nguyen Khanh Doanh, 2020. "Is NAFTA Trade‐Creating or Trade‐Diverting? A System GMM Approach," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(3), pages 222-238, September.
    13. Chae-Deug Yi, 2025. "The United Kingdom-Korea-Japan free trade agreement with the reduction in tariffs and non-tariff measures on trade and welfare," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 117-150, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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