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Trade creation and trade diversion of economic integration agreements revisited: a constrained panel pseudo-maximum likelihood approach

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  • Michael Pfaffermayr

    (University of Innsbruck
    Austrian Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

For PPML estimation of high-dimensional structural gravity panel models it proves useful to exploit the equilibrium restrictions imposed by the system of multilateral resistances. The main advantage of this approach lies in the functional dependence of the parameters of all dummy variables on the structural trade cost parameters. Moreover, the delta method is used to establish confidence intervals of counterfactual changes. Using the constrained panel PPML estimator for a panel of 65 countries in the period 1994–2012 indicates significant trade creation of economic integration agreements with average ranging in between 12.2 and 30.3% in 2012. Results also point to substantial domestic and international trade diversion, where the former dominates the latter.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Pfaffermayr, 2020. "Trade creation and trade diversion of economic integration agreements revisited: a constrained panel pseudo-maximum likelihood approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 985-1024, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:156:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10290-020-00389-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-020-00389-9
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    3. Augusto Cerqua & Pierluigi Montalbano & Zhansaya Temerbulatova, 2021. "A decade of Eurasian Integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian Economic Union," Working Papers 1/21, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    4. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr & Richard Sellner, 2021. "Revisiting time as a trade barrier: Evidence from a panel structural gravity model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(5), pages 1382-1417, November.
    5. Karemera, David & Guah, Mathew & Smalls, Gerald & Whitesides, Louis, 2023. "A Re-Examination of the Benefits of Trade Agreements on Agricultural Exports and the Impact of the 2008 Great Recession," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 11(3), July.
    6. Muhamad Rias K. V. Zainuddin & Tamat Sarmidi & Norlin Khalid, 2020. "Sustainable Production, Non-Tariff Measures, and Trade Performance in RCEP Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-12, November.
    7. Sadok ACHOUR & Dr. Fatima HADJI, 2021. "Determinants of trade flows to Agadir Agreement countries: gravity model three-way approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(627), S), pages 125-134, Summer.
    8. Michela Chessa & Arnaud Persenda & Dominique Torre, 2022. "Brexit and Canadadvent: An Application of Graphs and Hypergraphs to Recent International Trade Agreements," GREDEG Working Papers 2022-35, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade creation; Trade diversion; Economic integration agreements; Constrained panel Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation; International trade; Gravity equation; Structural estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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