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Trade and Jobs: Can We Trust the Models?

Author

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  • Dean Baker
  • David Rosnick

Abstract

This paper notes the poor track record of CGE models like the ones used by the Peterson Institute and the International Trade Commission in projecting the changes in patterns of trade following recent trade deals. These models failed to project the large rise in the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico following the implementation of NAFTA or with South Korea following the implementation of KORUS. Past research has shown that these models also failed to correctly identify the winning and losing industries in trade with Mexico following NAFTA. This analysis shows that the ITC model similarly failed to identify winning and losing industries following the implementation of the KORUS.

Suggested Citation

  • Dean Baker & David Rosnick, 2016. "Trade and Jobs: Can We Trust the Models?," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2016-05, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    • Handle: RePEc:epo:papers:2016-05
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    File URL: http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/trade-and-jobs-2016-04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kehoe,Timothy J. & Srinivasan,T. N. & Whalley,John (ed.), 2010. "Frontiers in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521153737, January.
    2. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer, 2016. "The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates," Working Paper Series WP16-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Jeronim Capaldo & Alex Izurieta & Jomo Kwame Sundaram, 2016. "Trading Down: Unemployment, Inequality and Other Risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement," GDAE Working Papers 16-01, GDAE, Tufts University.
    4. Kehoe,Timothy J. & Srinivasan,T. N. & Whalley,John (ed.), 2005. "Frontiers in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521825252, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dean Baker, 2016. "The International Trade Commission’s Assessment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Main Findings and Implications," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2016-20, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    2. Russ, Katheryn N. & Swenson, Deborah L., 2019. "Trade Diversion and Trade Deficits: The Case of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 22-31.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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