IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/epo/papers/2016-05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade and Jobs: Can We Trust the Models?

Author

Listed:
  • Dean Baker
  • David Rosnick

Abstract

This paper notes the poor track record of CGE models like the ones used by the Peterson Institute and the International Trade Commission in projecting the changes in patterns of trade following recent trade deals. These models failed to project the large rise in the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico following the implementation of NAFTA or with South Korea following the implementation of KORUS. Past research has shown that these models also failed to correctly identify the winning and losing industries in trade with Mexico following NAFTA. This analysis shows that the ITC model similarly failed to identify winning and losing industries following the implementation of the KORUS.

Suggested Citation

  • Dean Baker & David Rosnick, 2016. "Trade and Jobs: Can We Trust the Models?," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2016-05, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
  • Handle: RePEc:epo:papers:2016-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/trade-and-jobs-2016-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kehoe,Timothy J. & Srinivasan,T. N. & Whalley,John (ed.), 2010. "Frontiers in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521153737, January.
    2. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer, 2016. "The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates," Working Paper Series WP16-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Jeronim Capaldo & Alex Izurieta & Jomo Kwame Sundaram, 2016. "Trading Down: Unemployment, Inequality and Other Risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement," GDAE Working Papers 16-01, GDAE, Tufts University.
    4. Kehoe,Timothy J. & Srinivasan,T. N. & Whalley,John (ed.), 2005. "Frontiers in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521825252, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dean Baker, 2016. "The International Trade Commission’s Assessment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: Main Findings and Implications," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2016-20, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    2. Russ, Katheryn N. & Swenson, Deborah L., 2019. "Trade Diversion and Trade Deficits: The Case of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 22-31.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. M. Alejandro Cardenete & M. Carmen Lima & Ferran Sancho, 2013. "Are There Key Sectors? An Appraisal Using Applied General Equilibrium," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 43(2,3), pages 111-129, Winter.
    2. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2013. "How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 358-392.
    3. Jonathan I. Dingel & Felix Tintelnot, 2020. "Spatial Economics for Granular Settings," NBER Working Papers 27287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Electricity Market Structure Changes and Mergers: The Importance of Forward Commitments," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-137, February.
    5. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Antonio G. Gómez-Plana, 2015. "Alternative strategies to reduce public deficits: Taxes vs. spending," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 18, pages 45-70, May.
    6. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    7. M. Alejandro Cardenete & M. Carmen Lima & Ferran Sancho, 2017. "Validating Policy‐Induced Economic Change Using Sequential General Equilibrium SAMs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 291-304, April.
    8. Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Edson Paulo Domingues & Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli & Eduardo Simões de Almeida & Carlos Roberto Azzoni & Joaquim J. M. & Guilhoto Fabio Kanczuk, 2010. "Impactos Econômicos Das Mudanças Climáticas No Brasil," Anais do XIV Semin·rio sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 14th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais], in: Anais do XIV Seminário sobre a Economia Mineira [Proceedings of the 14th Seminar on the Economy of Minas Gerais], Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    9. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Massa Coulibaly & Luc Savard & Govinda Timilsina, 2018. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Impacts of Jatropha Based Biodiesel in Mali," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, November.
    10. StÈphane Bonhomme & GrÈgory Jolivet, 2009. "The pervasive absence of compensating differentials," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 763-795.
    11. Markusen, James R., 2013. "Expansion of trade at the extensive margin: A general gains-from-trade result and illustrative examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 262-270.
    12. Elena G. Irwin & Andrew M. Isserman & Maureen Kilkenny & Mark D. Partridge, 2010. "A Century of Research on Rural Development and Regional Issues," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(2), pages 522-553.
    13. Dorothée BOCCANFUSO & Massa COULABY & Govinda R TIMILSINA & Luc SAVARD, 2010. "Economic and Distributional Impact of Bio-Fuels in Mali," EcoMod2010 259600032, EcoMod.
    14. Robson, Edward N. & Wijayaratna, Kasun P. & Dixit, Vinayak V., 2018. "A review of computable general equilibrium models for transport and their applications in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 31-53.
    15. Pham Van Ha & Hoa Thi Minh Nguyen & Tom Kompas & Tuong Nhu Che & Bui Trinh, 2015. "Rice Production, Trade and the Poor: Regional Effects of Rice Export Policy on Households in Vietnam," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 280-307, June.
    16. Gibson, Mark J. & Graciano, Tim A., 2012. "Trade Engagement and Producer Performance," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124833, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Douillet, Mathilde, 2012. "Trade policy reforms in the new agricultural context: Is regional integration a priority for Sub-Saharan African countries agricultural-led industrialization? Insights from a global computable general," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126546, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Balistreri, Edward J. & Hillberry, Russell H. & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2011. "Structural estimation and solution of international trade models with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 95-108, March.
    19. Takashi Negishi, 2008. "Unnoticed predecessors of the early Negishi theorems," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(2), pages 167-173, June.
    20. Javier Ferri & Antonio G. Gómez-Plana & Joan A. Martín-Montaner, 2006. "Illegal immigration booms and welfare in the host country," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 22(4), pages 353-370, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:epo:papers:2016-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceprdus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.