IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jforec/v36y2017i3p291-304.html

Validating Policy‐Induced Economic Change Using Sequential General Equilibrium SAMs

Author

Listed:
  • M. Alejandro Cardenete
  • M. Carmen Lima
  • Ferran Sancho

Abstract

We present a novel sequential approach that explores the capacity of Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to track down policy‐induced economic changes and their ability to generate contrastable data. We use an empirical Social accounting matrix (SAM) of the region of Andalusia, in the south of Spain, to construct an initial CGE model. This model is then perturbed with a set of policy shocks related to EU Structural Funds invested into Andalusia. These shocks are accompanied by some parameter adjustments that pick up the main external changes not explained by the model. We generate a sequence of model‐produced virtual SAMs. We then compare the last virtual SAM in the sequence with a new available empirical SAM. This allows us to check relatedness, for the same year, between the model produced and the empirical SAMs. The results show a good fit to the empirical data, providing further support to the CGE modelling tool. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Alejandro Cardenete & M. Carmen Lima & Ferran Sancho, 2017. "Validating Policy‐Induced Economic Change Using Sequential General Equilibrium SAMs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 291-304, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:36:y:2017:i:3:p:291-304
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cotterman, Turner, 2019. "Why Rapid and Deep Decarbonization isn’t Simple: Linking Bottom-up Socio-technical Decision-making Insights with Top-down Macroeconomic Analyses," Conference papers 333088, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Ferran Sancho, 2023. "The surplus-value rate and the structure of the tax system," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 969.23, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:36:y:2017:i:3:p:291-304. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.